August 12 Aurora Upstages Meteor Shower and Potential Tropical Cyclone Five Watches Include Puerto Rico

Monday, August 12 2024

The weekend ended with quite a sky show, and we start this new work week with a new tropical cyclone to talk about. For starters, the Perseid Meteor Shower had many people outside overnight looking for shooting stars. It did put on a show of its own, but the Northern Lights overachieved with a fresh display in southern Pennsylvania, Maryland, and Virginia.

As for the Tropical Cyclone, it is located in the central Atlantic and now has a greater than 60% chance of developing into a Tropical Storm this week. The next name will be Ernesto when the winds reach 39 mph.

Northern Lights/Aurora

The Planetary Kp Index = 7, which is borderline for mid-Latitude viewing. Here is some of what was captured. More images are below the tropical weather update.

Abingdon, MD from Kelly McGreene. This is near Bel Air.

Gettysburg, PA, from Sarah Pearce.

Great Cacapon, WV, from Cory Otis

Potential Tropical Cyclone Five

Location

• ABOUT 645 MI…1040 KM ESE OF ANTIGUA
• ABOUT 940 MI…1515 KM ESE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO

Satellite Loop

Notes:

This disturbance remains disorganized but has a greater than 60% chance of developing into a Tropical Storm this week. It is expected to strengthen over the next two days and may be named Ernest when winds reach over 39 mph.

The winds are currently 30 mph, and the storm is moving to the West at 25 mph. At this time, the main risk is for the Leeward Islands.

Computer Model Forecast Track

After passing by the Caribbean Islands, this may make a run for Bermuda. Otherwise, this may be considered a FISH-STORM (remaining away from the mainland).

Computer Model Forecast Intensity

This may reach major hurricane intensity at Category 3.

Tropical Storm Watches

• Guadeloupe
• St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, Antigua, Barbuda, and Anguilla
• Saba and St. Eustatius
• St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
• Sint Maarten
• British Virgin Islands
• U.S. Virgin Islands
• Puerto Rico
• Vieques

RAINFALL:

Potential Tropical Cyclone Five is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 6 inches over portions of the Leeward Islands. For Puerto Rico, 3 to 6 inches of rainfall, with maximum amounts of 10 inches, is expected.

• Culebra

More Aurora Photos

Abingdon, MD

Brunswick, MD

Jefferson, MD

Shenandoah, VA

Westminster, MD

About The Colors

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RESTATING MY MESSAGE ABOUT DYSLEXIA

I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region.

One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky. 

There has been no editor who can check my work while writing and to have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm. #FITF