Thursday, July 4, 2024
Morning Report
Happy Birthday America! The celebrations today will be with a return of high heat and humidity. There is a Heat Advisory in place and a Marginal Risk for storms to turn severe.
There is a trough ahead of the cold front this morning that has produced a band of clouds and might drop some early rain showers. IF THIS HAPPENS, it might stabilize the atmosphere and reduce the risk of storms later. That has been reflected in the modeling below. But I would still pay attention and keep that chance for late day and evening thunderstorms in for your plans.
The storm has dropped to a Category 2 with 120 mph winds, but it remains a very destructive system. Today, it is pounding the Cayman Islands with a storm surge of up to 6 Feet and a rainfall range of 4 to 10 inches.
Tomorrow, it will pass through The Cayman Islands.
Hurricane Force Winds reach 45 miles from the center.
Tropical Storm Force Winds reach 175 miles from the center.
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SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Grand Cayman
* Little Cayman and Cayman Brac
* The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Puerto Costa Maya to Cancun, including Cozumel
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico south of Puerto Costa Maya to Chetumal
* The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico north of Cancun to Cabo Catoche
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico south of Puerto
Costa Maya to Chetumal
* The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico north of Cancun to
Campeche
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* Coast of Belize from south of Chetumal to Belize City
More heat and humidity today. There is a trough ahead of the cold front, which will be the focus for some showers that may develop sooner.
If we do see late morning rain showers, this may reduce the risk of storms in the afternoon.
Note this product is not showing the single line of storms as it did last night. I have my hesitations about how this product has performed and will continue to make this point: This is a SUGGESTION, NOT A PROMISE.
Despite this model’s limitations, the risk of rain or thunderstorms will persist through the evening. I will try to make a mid-day update for any adjustments.
Sunrise at 5:46 AM
Sunset at 8:36 PM
Normal Low in Baltimore: 67ºF
Record 53ºF in 1986
Normal High in Baltimore: 89ºF
Record 100ºF 1898, 1966, 2000
Hot and More Humid! Showers and storms will develop in the afternoon. I do not trust how the models are handling this, and they will be scattered, so we will just have to watch anything develop and track from there.
Heat Index Values will approach 100ºF again.
Almost every day will bring showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. A break in the humidity will cut that pattern off on Sunday.
We will remain with hot and humid weather for the next week. There may be one break in humidity on Sunday and Monday. Otherwise, each day will have a chance for afternoon storms.
I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region.
One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky.
There has been no editor who can check my work while writing and to have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm. #FITF
