Wednesday Evening, July 3 2024
Just about any year, we could expect the 4th of July weather to be hot and humid. This year, it might seem more noticeable following our nice break with an abrupt jump in humidity. This holiday will be classic weather bordering on uncomfortable during the morning and dangerous for some in the afternoon.
Temperatures will reach the upper 90s, and Heat Index values will approach 105ºF in metro areas, which has prompted a Heat Advisory in some areas (not all).
This may add fuel to the next weather system, which will ignite strong thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. There is a marginal risk that some will turn severe… and possibly affect late BBQs and some fireworks.
Below is a brief look at the latest radar simulation ‘suggestion’ for the timeline and location of a developing storm line.
This is focused on Central and Southern Maryland to parts of Northern Virginia around Washington DC.
The Marginal Risk is level 1 of 5, and not much to get worked up about.
However, given the high heat and humidity, this is fuel for storms to overachieve.. and since we have seen this trend lately, I would lean towards the potential for some late BBQs and fireworks displays to get affected.
The simulation suggests pop up thunderstorms in the mountains across Pennsylvania to western Maryland. This may develop into a solid line that drops Southeast entering Maryland in the evening.
The peak activity may cross metro Baltimore/Northeast Maryland between 7 PM and 10 PM and move slowly. This may allow for some local flash flooding in addition to damaging winds.
The next surge of heat, humidity, and storms will occur on Independence Day and into the weekend, with higher heat!
Beryl may make its final landfall in southern Texas near Houston. This will push inland but impact the large-scale pattern, helping to push in a more humid air mass across the Mid-Atlantic. This will increase our chance of daily storms without any organized events. That means daily storms will pop up any time in the afternoon and evening.
Simply put, a summer forecast: Hot and humid with a chance of storms each day. Most of them will be scattered and difficult to time and plot for your location. This is just something to consider and be aware of for your outdoor plans.
I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region.
One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky.
There has been no editor who can check my work while writing and to have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm. #FITF
