June 1 Sunny Saturday And Testing Potential New Month And Maybe A New Pattern

Saturday June 1

Morning Report

Today is the start of Hurricane Season in the Atlantic. The good news is that we have no storms to discuss, AND we start the weekend and month locally with sunshine and a warm day. The conflict I have remains with the Sunday ‘showers’. There is a large storm system in the central US that is running up against the roadblock of High Pressure, giving us a nice day.

Earlier in the week I had us remaining dry until Sunday night, with rain only in the mountains all day. Then it appeared the system might speed up a bit and bring in rain during the afternoon. 

The latest guidance shows that rain breaking up across the mountains, delaying the arrival until the evening. I do not have high confidence in the model forecasting as we have actually overachieved with rain recently. PLUS we have this weekend trend with persistent rain.  So I leaned in towards the solution that was wetter earlier and that might not hold.

So, Sunday may end up better in metro areas, but I would still be prudent with planning afternoon and evening outdoor activities.

Temperatures at 7 AM

There are still some pockets of chilly 40s. This is a reflection of the dry air that cools quickly at night and will warm quickly in the sunshine today.

Morning Surface Weather

High Pressure is the rule for us today. This provides a sunny Saturday across the Eastern US.

The large storm system in the central US is the concern as it will be running up against our High, slowing it down and maybe blocking it.

Afternoon Temperatures 

Back to a warm setup, above average.

Hurricane Season Outlook

Click to read: NOAA Releases Most Aggressive Outlook

CLIMATE DATA: Baltimore

TODAY June 1

Sunrise at 5:42 AM

Sunset at 8:27 PM

Normal Low in Baltimore:  58ºF

Record 42ºF in 1966

Normal High in Baltimore: 80ºF

Record 98ºF 2011

Sunday

Best suggestion now of the breakdown…

Morning 

Temperatures 

Cloud Cover

Increasing clouds in metro areas.. on the edge may be a beautiful sunrise. The overcast sky in the mountains will come with some rain..

Radar Simulation: 6 AM to Midnight 

Snapshot Late Morning

The early showers will be confined in the mountains… perhaps reaching Hagerstown.

Afternoon Temperatures Peak Early (metro areas)

Increasing clouds and some showers that might not show up on the modeling may help cool the air during the afternoon.

1 PM

4 PM

Radar Simulation Snapshots

6 PM

Leading edge of the showers may be approaching the front ridge… Some T’storms may be embedded.

9 PM

The latest guidance has the rain reaching metro areas in the evening and overnight.

7 Day Forecast

Temperatures remain nearly seasonal after our warm day today. The coolest day now may be Wednesday, with the best chance of rain. Then, it will warm back up towards the end of the work week. 

Hurricane Season Outlook

Click to read: NOAA Releases Most Aggressive Outlook

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RESTATING MY MESSAGE ABOUT DYSLEXIA

I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region.

One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky. 

There has been no editor who can check my work while writing and to have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm. #FITF