Storm Update Sunday Night And Severe Weather Outlook Memorial Day

Sunday, May 26 2024

Active weather has already affected our region this weekend. This afternoon, a cluster of slow-moving severe storms formed over Delmarva, producing over 2 inches of rain in spots. The humid air over the Atlantic also helped produce a thick fog along the coast with sustained chill.

Tonight, our focus will shift to a line of storms moving out of the mountains. This has a history of multiple severe storm warnings across West Virginia, Virginia, and Maryland. As this moves into metro areas, the line should break up and fade between 11 PM and 2 AM.

Then, we shift our focus to the main event, moving our way from the Mid-West. Memorial Day will bring the risk of rain or thunderstorms at any time. They do not have to be severe with a warning to cause problems. Any storm may have dangerous lightning or locally heavy downpours with pockets of flooding.

Afternoon Storm Over Delmarva 

Beach Fog And Delmarva Storms

Sunday Night Surface Weather 

The main event is associated with a strong Cold Front. If you had been watching the baseball coverage of the Cubs at the Cardinals in St. Louis, it was postponed due to a severe storm that had produced 3-inch (baseball-size) hail.

This energy will shift EAST for Memorial Day and affect us in the Mid-Atlantic throughout the day. 

NOAA Severe Storm Outlook Memorial Day

Forecast Maps Below:

The Slight Risk brings the chance for wind gusts over 58 mph, hail over 1 inch in diameter, and an isolated tornado.

Live Radar and Lightning Widget

Compare this to the Forecast Maps below 

Radar Simulations

It is important to remember these are SUGGESTIONS, NOT PROMISES

HRRR Model 10 PM Sun to 6 AM Mon

Snapshot 11 PM

The line of storms will begin to fade as it approaches metro areas. The orientation across the mountains will likely lead to downslope winds, breaking this up.

Snapshot at Midnight

Snapshot 2 AM

This line should break up as it reaches and crosses the Chesapeake Bay.

Memorial Day

Morning Showers or Storms?

A look at 10 AM shows the inconsistency with model guidance. There will be residual energy in the atmosphere, but where is not certain.

HRRR Model 

Shows these developing storms in Southern Maryland

NAM 3 Km Model

Shows this already crossing the Delaware Bay into Southern NJ.

Radar Simulation (NAM 3 Km Model)

Noon to Midnight

Afternoon and Evening

This is when the most intense storms may produce severe conditions.

Keep In Mind For Alerts

• Watch: These storms are POSSIBLE, NOT PROMISED!  THERE IS POTENTIAL they may form…
• Warning: Severe storms are identified and tracked through specific towns with more specific timelines.

Afternoon: Snapshot at 3 PM

Evening: Snapshot at 6 PM

Night: Snapshot at 8 PM

Looking Ahead

Monday Through Thursday

After the Storms on Monday, the next chance of showers will be scattered on Wednesday as cooler air builds in.

7 Day Forecast

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RESTATING MY MESSAGE ABOUT DYSLEXIA

I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region.

One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky. 

There has been no editor who can check my work while writing and to have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm. #FITF