Thursday August 29 2019

The big weather news is all about Hurricane Dorian and likely impact on the Southeast US this Labor Day weekend. It will be a focus as set up a warm and dry start to our holiday weekend. I will cover both aspects here, but let’s start with the storm that just hit the Virgin Islands but spared Puerto Rico from its worst. The center of Dorian stayed east of Puerto Rico passing over St. Thomas yesterday. It has kept on the right side of forecast tracks.

This morning, Hurricane Dorian has winds of 85 mph. It is entering warmer water and consensus forecasts show it becoming a major hurricane before reaching Florida this weekend. The would be Category 3 with winds of 115 mph or higher.

The complete hurricane forecast with the latest satellite loop are below our local weather:

Hurricane Dorian IR Satellite

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Local Weather

The rain we had yesterday was part of a cold front that will actually warm us back to late summer temps.  Erin has been downgraded to a Post Tropical Cyclone with 35 mph winds. The front will keep it away from the coast, but rip currents will remain an issue at beaches through tomorrow.

Our weekend will be warm with increasing chance of storms Sunday and Labor Day Monday afternoons and evenings.

Local Weather Stats:

Thursday August 29, 2019 in Baltimore

Average High:  83ºF

Record High: 100ºF in 1953

Average  Low: 63ºF

Record Low:  47ºF in 1986

Sunrise: 6:32 AM

Sunset 7:42 PM  

*Daylight = 2:26 shorter than yesterday 

*Bay Water Temperature = 77ºF at Thomas Pt. Light House

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Morning Temperatures

Afternoon Highs Today

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Morning Lows Friday

Afternoon Highs Friday

Outlook

We can expect showers and thunderstorms to develop both Sunday and Monday afternoon to evening. More on that as we get closer.

Hurricane Dorian

Infrared Satellite Loop

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Hurricane Dorian Stats at 5 AM Thursday

LOCATION...20.5N 66.6W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM NNW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 425 MI...685 KM ESE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES

Computer Model Forecast

There is a big spread in where landfall may occur on Sunday. To illustrate this, compare these two leading computer models. The GFS is farthest to the north.  The European ECMWF is farthest to the south.

Hurricane Dorian Spaghetti Plot

Here is a look at the complete model forecast spread. The general agreement has landfall in the central Florida Atlantic coast. The would be south of Cape Canaveral… Eventually turning to the north. There is less agreement as to where that will happen before landfall, over Florida, or even after it enters the Gulf of Mexico.

Hurricane Dorian Wind Arrival

Here is a plot of when Tropical Storm Intensity Winds (39 mph+) arrive. Sunday morning will be when the Florida coast will feel the first effects. Due to the forecast movement slowing down, the landfall is expected to be later on Monday.

Hurricane Dorian Forecast Intensity 

The majority of models show Dorian above Category 3 by tomorrow (hour 36). Notice there are models in this group that vary on both the strong and weaker side.  It is important to note that so far the forecasting for this storm has NOT been good. The location of the center has been on the right or north side of forecasts.

National Hurricane Center Forecast

While the error in recent forecast has been to the north, the latest modeling shifts the landfall to the south. The confidence is on the lower side of moderate for timing and intensity. That is often the case with the first big event of the season. If you have interests in Florida, there is likely to be some wiggle room with the landfall. So please keep checking on the updates every 3 to 6 hours.

Please share your thoughts, best weather pics/video, or just keep in touch via social media

• Facebook: Justin Berk, Meteorologist

• Twitter: @JustinWeather

• Instagram: justinweather

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