Fathers Day Afternoon Storm Update

Sunday June 16 2019

This is a quick update to show you the potential timeline for storms this afternoon and evening. I hope this helps you prepare as much as I will be tracking for my son’s all start baseball game this afternoon.

This is NOT perfect, but it may help give an idea of how the storms may develop and move this afternoon and evening. First, here is a look at the radar loop. The action has faded and shifted north this morning… as expected. The next expectation is for a line of storms to develop and possibly reach severe levels after 3 PM.

Radar Loop 11:45 AM to 1:45 PM

Just waiting for the next line to develop in the afternoon heat.

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Radar Snapshot at 1:45 PM

Radar Simulation (HRRR Model) —> slider

This model may be as much as 1 hour behind the actual result. This is only for the ‘potential’.

See my additional notes below:

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Notes:

Watch the radar to get more active before 3 PM between Hagerstown and Frederick.

• 3 PM to 4 PM – Frederick, Westminster, and York PA and western Baltimore beltway.
• 4 to 5 PM – Baltimore to Bel Air…. Annapolis and crossing the Bay to the upper Eastern Shore.
• 6  to 7 PM – Easton, Dover, and Delaware beaches. The Maryland beaches might get the edge of the storm line but the bulk of energy will be to the north according to the HRRR Model.

Also…

• Reminder: This is a suggestion, not a promise. The timing may be off by up to 1 hour and the location is not precise. This model is for a suggestion of how the storms may play out.
• Here we see mid afternoon between southern PA and central Maryland. The biggest hit in Baltimore around 6 PM.
• This evening and tonight the focus will shift to Delmarva

Severe Storm Risk from SPC

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