February 2 Groundhog Day And Polar Vortex Brings Winter Blast
February 2, 2023
Thursday Morning Report
Today is Groundhog Day and in Punxsutawney Pennsylvania, Phil did see his shadow: He has declared 6 More Weeks Of Winter. He Has Faith in the Flakes! This picture is on the internet, so we know it is true!
It is definitely going to feel like winter for a few days as the Polar Vortex skirts Maine and impacts weather through the Mid Atlantic into the start of the weekend.
Our focus begins on Friday with strong winds and snow showers. Some squalls could coat the ground. The wind chills be be dangerously cold later Friday into Saturday morning. Then we get a quick warm up to follow. Sound familiar?
Headlines
- Today: Seasonally cold and Cloudy
- Friday: Arctic Blast! Windy, Cold, and Snow Showers
- Weekend: Frigid Saturday, Warmer Sunday
Green Comet Images
If you missed out on the closet approach of this 50,000 year orbit, here are a few views of that green comet.
Did It Break Up?
Andrew McCarthy got this close up and may have seen multiple pieces of the comet.
This is the core of the comet as of a moment ago. As you can see, the nucleus appears to have broken up into multiple pieces. I’ll encourage any other astrophotographers to help me validate this, but so far it looks like this on every exposure I’ve captured. pic.twitter.com/21FXOMLxbN
— Andrew McCarthy (@AJamesMcCarthy) February 2, 2023
Animation From Chuck’s Astrophotography
GOT IT! I captured #Green #Comet C/2022 E3 (ZTF) cruising at 128,500 mph (206,000 km/h). The comet will make its closest approach to Earth on February 1 when it will be 26 million miles away (41,842,944 km). I used my #Celestron RASA 8-inch telescope and ZWO ASI533MC. pic.twitter.com/uyLZadFZXd
— Chuck’s Astrophotography (@chucksastropho1) January 31, 2023
Morning Temperatures
Just the start of the cold air. This is near seasonal levels. The chill is on the way.
Morning Surface Weather
Plenty of clouds this morning, but we are safely in the dry air just north of that old frontal boundary.
If you are traveling, there is light snow near Richmond, VA.
A persistent ice storm continues to plague central Texas all the way into Tennessee.
The next push of Arctic air will reach us from the north.
Afternoon Temperatures
Seasonal temperatures, but it will feel chilly.
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CLIMATE DATA
TODAY February 2
Normal Low in Baltimore: 25ºF
Record 1ºF in 1881
SNOW: 4.4” 1996
Normal High in Baltimore: 44ºF
Record 71ºF 1967
Climate Trivia
Latest Measurable Snow In Baltimore
Yesterday Capped At 3rd Latest
- Feb 21 in 1973 (50 years ago)
- Feb 6 in 1914 (109 years ago)
- Feb 1 in 2023 Ended
- Jan 25 in 1992 ( 31 years ago)
- Jan 25 in 1901 ( 122 years ago)
- Jan 23 in 1966 (57 years ago)
Friday Weather
Here We Go!
Wind Animation 7 AM to 7 PM
Check out the wind flow from the Northwest. It will gust over 30 mph at times as it ushers in the arctic air.
Morning Temperatures
We will start off chilly, and the freezing line is important to watch….
Radar Simulation 5 AM to 7 PM
There will be streamers from Lake Erie and a few robust snow squalls could reach our region. Mixed in with regular snow showers and flurries.
A quick coating on the ground is possible.
Afternoon Temperatures
Afternoon Wind Chill
With gusts to 30 mph, it will feel much colder!
Saturday: Core Cold
This will be dangerously cold!
Near record wind chills possible for parts of New England.
Forecast From The National Weather Service For Maine
You are reading this correctly: -50s to -70s Wind Chills. That could be record lowest observed in some places!
Polar Vortex And The Jet Stream Flip
The Polar Vortex will be dislodged to Eastern Canada. That will send in our arctic blast, but like the Christmas event it will be brief. Then we warm up again next week.
Jet Stream: Snapshot Friday
Jet Stream Animation
Feb 2 to Feb 12
While the ridge does build in next week, we will see another push of colder air next weekend. Winter is not done yet despite what Phil might say.
7 Day Forecast
After this arctic blast bottoms out Saturday morning, we will bounce to spring temps next week. However, I see there will be another push of colder air just out of this 7 day window.
Also See:
Winter History: Low Snow And Late Starts
See my research based on Baltimore data since 1883.
NOAA Outlook: Colder Start To February
Click here for the full report
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STEM Assemblies/In School Fields Trips Are Back
Click to see more and ‘Book’ a visit to your school
My Winter Outlook: Not A Typical La Niña!
I see many factors to support colder influence with multiple systems. Early and later in winter. Check it out.
Also See The Winter Outlook Series:
Atmospheric Memory Suggests Active Winter Storm Pattern Outlook
Winter Outlook 2023 From NOAA Very Different Than Farmers Almanacs
Farmer’s Almanac Comparison
Winter Outlook 2023 Early Look At Snow From Two Farmers Almanacs
Triple Dip La Niña Winter
https://justinweather.com/2022/09/09/winter-outlook-2023-la-nina-triple-dip-expectations/
CONNECTION TO WINTER?
If you want a snowy winter, this is what you might want to look for in the rest of the tropical season.
Record August For No Named Tropical Storms: Closer Look At Snow Following
Wooly Bear Caterpillars
Persimmon Seeds
Click to see Top 20 and MORE
Winter Weather Folklore Top 20 And More Outlook Signals From Nature For Cold And Snow
Normals And Records: Maryland and Baltimore Climate History
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