December 7 2022

Wednesday Morning Update 

The weather system we had yesterday is still here. The added moisture and convoluted warm front has forced a wedge of colder and damp air. The result has been some very thick fog in parts of the region, which will impact travel. 

Headlines

• Today: Thick Fog This Morning, Bands Of Rain
• Tomorrow: Mild
• Friday: Late Day Rain/Light Mix Inland Overnight 

Morning Visibility

Numbers listed in miles: Thick fog will affect travel around and north of Baltimore.

Morning Temperatures

Morning Surface Weather

The thick fog is located in the ‘wedge’ of colder air where the warm front has not been able to push through yet. 

One band of rain to the north, and another will pass across our southern areas.

Live Radar Widget

Use the controls to zoom and shift the view.

Radar Simulation 

7 AM to 7 PM

The HRRR Model has continued to show that northern rain band diminishing. However, it has looked stronger on radar than the model has shown, so our local Southern PA area may still get that with an attempt to push in warmer air. To the South: A steady rain is more likely to pass near and south of Rt 50 then across the Bay mid day.

Afternoon Temperatures 

If we can get the fog to lift, temps will warm to the upper 50s and near 60ºF today.

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CLIMATE DATA

TODAY December 7

Normal Low in Baltimore:  31ºF

Record 6ºF in 2002

SNOW: 0.8 inches in 1969

Normal High in Baltimore: 50ºF

Record 77ºF 1998

Thursday Temperatures 

Morning 

Not much movement on the thermometers.

Afternoon

Still a little above average.

Looking Ahead

ECMWF Model: Through Friday Evening 

After today’s rain, we will watch the next impulse for Friday. I have stopped this at 10 PM Friday night with light snow entering the middle of our region. 

I have been following this event for the anticipation of the magic with a first snowfall. It has been a light event and not expected to amount to much, let alone stick. The latest run looks very light, but I am still not ‘calling’ it until later today for what I believe we can legitimately expect. So, we will watch together. 

Last Night I Showed This

The GFS Model had joined the European Model. This is simply to show the chance of snow falling in central Maryland. Not an indication of stickage or amounts. 

Jet Stream: Sunday Dec 11 to Friday Dec 16

The European Model shows the evolution of the cold air. The attempt this weekend is the reason for the Friday night and Sunday event, but seems to be running into a challenge. Next week we see a stronger force resulting in cold air dominating the Eastern US.

7 Day Forecast

I need to reinforce that I am still tracking the chance for light snow overnight Friday night, but it will be in the dark hours and a light event.

Waiting for the very cold air? So am I. The jet steam I showed above indicates it is on the way… just out of the scope of this 7-Day outlook.

My Winter Outlook: Not A Typical La Niña!

I see many factors to support colder influence with multiple systems. Early and later in winter. Check it out.

Winter Outlook 2023 For Snow Not Typical La Niña Plus Polar Vortex Disruption

Also See The Winter Outlook Series:

Atmospheric Memory Suggests Active Winter Storm Pattern Outlook

Winter Outlook 2023 From NOAA Very Different Than Farmers Almanacs

Farmer’s Almanac Comparison

Winter Outlook 2023 Early Look At Snow From Two Farmers Almanacs

Triple Dip La Niña Winter

Winter Outlook 2023 La Niña Triple Dip Expectations

CONNECTION TO WINTER?

If you want a snowy winter, this is what you might want to look for in the rest of the tropical season. (You might be seeing a lot of commercial snow removal people out this Winter).

Record August For No Named Tropical Storms: Closer Look At Snow Following

Wooly Bear Caterpillars

Winter Weather Outlook From The Wooly Bear Caterpillar

Persimmon Seeds

Winter Weather Outlook: Persimmon Seeds And Snow Folklore

Click to see Top 20 and MORE

Winter Weather Folklore Top 20 And More Outlook Signals From Nature For Cold And Snow

Faith in the Flakes Gear

SNOWSTIX – Available Now

Normals And Records: Maryland and Baltimore Climate History

STEM Assemblies/In School Fields Trips Are Back

Click to see more and ‘Book’ a visit to your school

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