Conditions: Baltimore, Maryland, 03/28/2024 03:00:03 pm
Temperature

51°

Cloudy

39°

Dew Point
Relative Humidity

63%

Feels Like

51°

Wind (NW)

12mph

Air Pressure

29.95

Sun
Sun Rise

06:56 AM

Sun Set

07:26 PM

Day Length

12:30 Hours

Difference

2 min 34 sec gain

Moon
Moon Rise

11:05 PM

Moon Set

08:19 AM

Next: Last Quarter

Apr 01,2024

Moon Phase

Waning Gibbous

Climate
Average Low

37°

58°

Average High
Record Low

21°


(1982)

87°


(1945)
Record High
Conditions

Tuesday Afternoon Update: GFS Model Trending Colder For The Weekend Event

Maryland Weather
Outlook
Winter Weather
Forecast

December 6 2022

Tuesday Afternoon Update 

As you read the following, please note this is just one model update to follow in the series of reports for signals of winter weather. This is NOT a forecast and definitely not a promise. However, what we see is that the American GFS Model (which has been the warmest of our three main model guidance packages) is now showing a colder intrusion and some nearby snow going into the weekend.

Tuesday Afternoon Surface Weather

We are in a wet pattern. Today we have periods of rain and fog with cool air stuck in the interior Mid-Atlantic. The colder air is locked in place, and so is the storm track.

Tuesday afternoon weather December 6

 

GFS Model Simulation: Tuesday Through Saturday

We will remain with clouds and showers much of the week, and the final wave will try to bring in colder air. We can see a hint of that with snow (blue) showing up overnight Friday into Saturday morning around the Maryland and Pennsylvania line.

Wednesday: Showers

Thursday: Maybe a dry break

Friday: Rain returns

Friday Night-Saturday: Rain with snow mix INLAND!

December 6 weather rain snow gfs weekend

Reminder:

I showed this comparison the morning of the European, Canadian, and GFS Model. Here we even saw the Canadian Model back off a little, and the European was the only one still showing some nearby snow.  The GFS Model (on the right) remained warm for a few runs and kept just rain as a risk for central Maryland. 

Snow chance this weekend

NEW GFS: Friday 7 AM to Saturday 1 PM

See the time stamps below.

December 6 weather rain Friday snow Saturday

Friday Evening 

Light rain over much of the area, with a hint of snow mixing in near I-81 north and west of Chambersburg to Harrisburg PA.

 

EARLY Saturday Morning 

4 AM – The signal for snow within 10 miles of the Maryland and Pennsylvania line up into central Pennsylvania.

This may include northern Baltimore, Carroll, Frederick, and Washington Counties in Maryland. If you are near Baltimore, Annapolis, or Washington, this still looks like a rain event for you.

 

7 AM – If snow will fall in this area it will continue for a few hours.

 

10 AM – The energy will not last long as the precipitation fades to showers and ends during the morning. 

 

Low Temperatures 

If we follow this GFS Model solution, then we also must consider that the surface air temperatures will remain above freezing. Also, the ground is likely still too warm, so stickage will be limited.

 

Notes:

This is just an inside look at the latest model update. It is NOT a forecast, nor should it be. However, if the European Model (we will see later) still holds cold, then we know that is likely the way we should look at this event. It also leads more value to the European Model with the mid to long range for future events. 

I do not believe in snow forecast beyond 72 hours, should there be any impact stickage and accumulation.

I will follow up with the Canadian and European Model updates later.

 

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NEW REPORTS

Comparing The Snow In Decembers With Similar Patterns

Comparing December Cold Pattern Forecast To Snow In Similar Analog Years

December Outlook Trending Colder For Start Of Meteorological Winter

NEW Faith In The Flakes Gear

 

My Winter Outlook: Not A Typical La Niña!

I see many factors to support colder influence with multiple systems. Early and later in winter. Check it out.

Winter Outlook 2023 For Snow Not Typical La Niña Plus Polar Vortex Disruption

 

 

Also See The Winter Outlook Series:

Atmospheric Memory Suggests Active Winter Storm Pattern Outlook

 

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Farmer’s Almanac Comparison

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Winter Outlook 2023 La Niña Triple Dip Expectations

 

CONNECTION TO WINTER?

If you want a snowy winter, this is what you might want to look for in the rest of the tropical season. (You might be seeing a lot of commercial snow removal people out this Winter).

Record August For No Named Tropical Storms: Closer Look At Snow Following

 

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Winter Weather Outlook From The Wooly Bear Caterpillar

 

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Winter Weather Outlook: Persimmon Seeds And Snow Folklore

 

Click to see Top 20 and MORE

Winter Weather Folklore Top 20 And More Outlook Signals From Nature For Cold And Snow

 

Faith in the Flakes Gear

 

SNOWSTIX – Available Now

 

Normals And Records: Maryland and Baltimore Climate History

 

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Click to see more and ‘Book’ a visit to your school

 

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