December 6 2022

Tuesday Morning Update 

It’s the third day of our cycle and we know what that means: Another rainy day. This fits the pattern we’ve been in for weeks with rain arriving in the morning. It will break the pattern with a lack of a break, as rain is likely to continue through the day. It is not heavy and steady, but showers are likely at any time through midnight. 

Temps remain mild tomorrow. Then we get into the next event as colder air tries to move in. The model guidance is still split, but we know the next event will arrive later on Friday into Saturday. Our chance for snow or mix has a 30% chance around and north of Baltimore. If you are south of the city it is less likely. 

Headlines

• Today: Rain Showers Today
• Tomorrow: Mild
• Friday/Saturday: Wintry Mix Possible 
• Next Week: Still Waiting For The Pattern To Flip And Hold

Morning Temperatures

A chilly and damp start to the day.

Morning Surface Weather

Developing Low Pressure will continue to organize and expand the rain through our region all day. Given the location of the Low in Tennessee, the chance for showers will continue through midnight.

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Radar Simulation 

7 AM to Midnight: NAM 3 Km

It will not be a heavy rain, but it will be on and off all day.

Afternoon Temperatures 

Remaining cool with the rain.

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CLIMATE DATA

TODAY December 6

Normal Low in Baltimore:  32ºF

Record 13ºF in 2002

SNOW: 5.9 inches in 1910

Normal High in Baltimore: 50ºF

Record 78ºF 1998

NEW REPORTS

Comparing The Snow In Decembers With Similar Patterns

Comparing December Cold Pattern Forecast To Snow In Similar Analog Years

Wednesday Weather:

 Temperatures 

Morning 

Afternoon

Looking Ahead

ECMWF Model: Friday To Saturday Evening

This model continues to show a band of snow mixing in overnight into Saturday. This does NOT promise stickage, and accounts for roughly a 30% chance of snow falling (compared to other models)

If your weather app is NOT showing this, it is because the American GFS Model keeps us with just rain.

Jet Stream: Saturday Dec 10 to Thu Dec 15

The Canadian GEM has taken the lead with the cold push breaking and flipping the script next week to lock in the colder air for the Eastern US. 

7 Day Forecast

Mild for a few days, then colder with that rain or mix Friday night into Saturday. Next week we will continue to watch the pattern switch.

My Winter Outlook: Not A Typical La Niña!

I see many factors to support colder influence with multiple systems. Early and later in winter. Check it out.

Winter Outlook 2023 For Snow Not Typical La Niña Plus Polar Vortex Disruption

Also See The Winter Outlook Series:

Atmospheric Memory Suggests Active Winter Storm Pattern Outlook

Winter Outlook 2023 From NOAA Very Different Than Farmers Almanacs

Farmer’s Almanac Comparison

Winter Outlook 2023 Early Look At Snow From Two Farmers Almanacs

Triple Dip La Niña Winter

Winter Outlook 2023 La Niña Triple Dip Expectations

CONNECTION TO WINTER?

If you want a snowy winter, this is what you might want to look for in the rest of the tropical season. (You might be seeing a lot of commercial snow removal people out this Winter).

Record August For No Named Tropical Storms: Closer Look At Snow Following

Wooly Bear Caterpillars

Winter Weather Outlook From The Wooly Bear Caterpillar

Persimmon Seeds

Winter Weather Outlook: Persimmon Seeds And Snow Folklore

Click to see Top 20 and MORE

Winter Weather Folklore Top 20 And More Outlook Signals From Nature For Cold And Snow

Faith in the Flakes Gear

SNOWSTIX – Available Now

Normals And Records: Maryland and Baltimore Climate History

STEM Assemblies/In School Fields Trips Are Back

Click to see more and ‘Book’ a visit to your school

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