Friday Evening September 30
At 5 PM, Ian was reclassified as a Post Tropical Cyclone. It is inland with 70 mph winds and has lost its tropical signature, and is now being stretched out up the East Coast of the US. That includes us, in and around Maryland.
This post has a quick update on the storm, and a focus on the rain (and some wind) we can expect in our area.
IT WILL FEEL LIKE A NOR’EASTER FOR US
While this is still a dangerous system with storm surge and flooding rainfall in the path, the impact for our region will be less potent, while still very noticeable.
5 PM True Color Satellite
The remnants of Ian will break down and be declassified by Saturday afternoon near Roanoke, VA. It will bring flash flooding along its path into the mountains.
The brighter green, yellow, and orange are where the rain is reaching the ground.
Let’s look at the rain first, then the wind…
Rain has reached I-70 between Baltimore to Frederick. It will continue to spread north this evening.
The heavy rain is already near Richmond and will also spread north tonight.
For many months I have mentioned the errors in one model or another. Here is a look at the National Blend of Models NBM, taking the average of the solutions for something that may be more acceptable.
It still looks like the rain has moved in a little faster. The heaviest rain will fall overnight into Saturday morning.
Rain moving through and north of metro Baltimore
Rain will overspread into Southern PA.
Heavy Rain will be moving up through southern Maryland.
4 AM
Heavy Rain will continue in southern Maryland and spread into metro Baltimore.
The heaviest rain will split off to the east, while the core Low of Ian will pivot to the west. Heavy rain will continue in the mountains.
The Western Rain Band with the remnants of Ian will continue to spin and slowly pivot to the east. We will remain under showers off and on all day.
Yes, we have had wind restrictions and they may continue through the morning. This will be like a Nor’easter for us, then ease during Saturday afternoon.
The Northeast Wind will feel like a Nor’easter and keep us chilly.
Overnight through Saturday morning.
As we can see, the winds might ease during the afternoon on Saturday.
Most of the region will be chilly, stuck in the 50s. However, with the wind from the Atlantic and crossing the Chesapeake Bay: South of the Bay Bridge to The Beaches will be mid 60s to near 70ºF.
Plotting the rain and circulation inland, we can see the rain split later on Saturday, then redevelop on Sunday.
The new Low Pressure trying to organize may pass through Maryland and off the coast keeping the risk of rain showers around through Tuesday.
Hurricane Ian May Help Cooler Pattern Change: Monitor For Atmospheric Memory This Winter
If you want a snowy winter, this is what you might want to look for in the rest of the tropical season.
Record August For No Named Tropical Storms: Closer Look At Snow Following
NOAA 2022 Hurricane Forecast- Above Normal Again
NOAA Study: Reducing Air Pollution INCREASED Tropical Storms
Atlantic Tropical History: Maps of Origin Regions Every 10 Days
Click to see more and ‘Book’ a visit to your school
