May 14 2022
Saturday Morning Report
If Friday helped explain my message then this may be a simple forecast. But if you have a wedding, birthday party, or sporting event it still may not help. We are in for a humid feel AND more scattered showers and storms through the weekend.
The added moisture from rain on Friday has led to dense fog this morning.
On Friday evening I showed the radar of storms developing in central Maryland that were not on short range forecasts. However, there was the idea that some areas would be under the track of repeated cells while others missed out.
Below is a look at today’s short range model simulation and the overall pattern continuing through Monday. Looking farther out, summer heat will build for Preakness Saturday. That should break out wet weekend pattern.
The circulation is onshore, but I you watch the flare our of cirrus clouds to the north in MD and PA, this looks like it would have wanted to turn tropical if it was still over the water. We got luck with this, but it shows the energy still involved that will build up today.
Radar Simulations (animaton and slider)
REMINDER: This is NOT PERFECT! The HRRR Model is the best we have right now, and it is showing a complex of showers and storm cells building over central Maryland later this morning to early afternoon. ‘
As this shifts north, another cluster in the mountains will be forming during the afternoon and then shift east tonight.
Here you can control the images and compare to the radar to see how this is performing.
TODAY May 14th
Normal Low in Baltimore: 51ºF
Record 34ºF in 2013
Normal High in Baltimore: 73ºF
Record 95ºF 1956
Here we see the flare up of storms this afternoon and again on Sunday.
The cluster of storms on Sunday and Monday will be more likely in the afternoon and evening as a cold front passes. This may bring the highest risk for severe storms, but also clear us out mid week.
SUMMER HEAT BY NEXT WEEKND
The pattern will relax and let the heat build in this week. See the forecast high temps for next weekend below the 7 Day forecast
NOAA Study: Reducing Air Pollution INCREASED Tropical Storms
Atlantic Tropical History: Maps of Origin Regions Every 10 Days
*Disclaimer due to frequent questions:
I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here you may have missed it:
I have dyslexia, and found out at my second year at Cornell. I didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree, and being first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region.
I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse.
All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky.
There is no editor that can check my work when I need it and have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline.
I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me…
It’s part of my charm.
