Conditions: Baltimore, Maryland, 03/29/2024 01:30:03 am
Temperature

46°

Mostly Clear

24°

Dew Point
Relative Humidity

42%

Feels Like

41°

Wind (WNW)

10mph

Air Pressure

29.94

Sun
Sun Rise

06:54 AM

Sun Set

07:27 PM

Day Length

12:33 Hours

Difference

2 min 34 sec gain

Moon
Moon Rise

07:00 PM

Moon Set

08:49 AM

Next: Last Quarter

Apr 01,2024

Moon Phase

Waning Gibbous

Climate
Average Low

37°

58°

Average High
Record Low

18°


(1923)

90°


(1945)
Record High
Conditions

Snow Reports And Grade My Forecast For February 13

grade my forecast
snow report

Sunday February 13 2022

To claim this was a difficult forecast would be an understatement. Our region had three days in a row with high temperatures reaching 60ºF or higher, followed by this snow event.  Tracking it and convincing people it would snow when they are wearing shorts and flip flops sounded crazy. My wife didn’t even believe me.

But it happened, with the assist of the overnight hours.  

Text From My Wife Shannon This Morning: True Story

 

 

The snow results were close compared to my forecast in many areas..

However there was an overachieving burst NorthWest of Baltimore, AND a failure for stickage resulting in much less snow accumulation to the south.

 

Here’s a quick look at the Regional Snow Reports compared to my First Call and Updated Forecast Maps

Below, please see my notes and participate in Grading My Forecast. 

 

Snow Spotter Reports

Local Maps and lists can be found below.

I hope you can zoom in on your phone. There was a lot of reports here and I tried to annotated in colors to help sort out the data.

 

My First Call For Snowfall

*I cut off the snow to the north…

 

My Updated Call For Snowfall

I included more northern areas into PA, and Increased the high end range of 2 to 4 inches.   My fail was the snow forecast in Baltimore and south.

 

 

Correct: 

  • It snowed AFTER three days in the 60s. There were a lot of doubters.
  • Western Maryland Snow Totals
  • A lot of 2” results actually fit in the both the lower (1” to 3” and higher (2” to 4”)
  • There was a band of a snow burst, but not in the location I expected.

 

 

Incorrect:

  • Missed the snow burst from Carroll County to Southern PA. This was best called by the Canadian  GEM Model.
  • Too much snow for Baltimore and south. It snowed, but was too warm for most to stick. 
  • Most Roads Ended Up Wet: I presented all of the Information and even allowed for an extra 2 hours extra to delay the arrival of freezing temps, but that wasn’t enough.
  • The challenge that has been an issue often this winter was a snow or icing event relying on falling temperatures before sunrise.  This is the fourth time that happened. Each time, the cold air was delayed AND seems to stall right around Baltimore.
  • You would think we would learn!

 

 



 

**GRADE MY FORECAST POLL**

More local maps, list of spotter reports, and model forecasts can be found below. 

Personally I would give myself a C for this overall. There were some A spots, many Bs, but many places I failed as well.  Will you grade me on the total event or just your location?

 

 

1071
Grade my Forecast February 13 2022

Please grade my forecast with your honest assessment of actual snow falling, what accumulated, and even stickage or lack thereof on the roads (I know I was wrong there).

 

 

Snow Spotter Reports From NWS For February 13

North Central and Northeast Maryland:

…Carroll County…

  Taneytown  NE           4.1   900 AM  2/13  Trained Spotter        

  Taneytown 4 NE          4.0  1000 AM  2/13  CoCoRaHS               

  Manchester 1 SSW        4.0   705 AM  2/13  Trained Spotter        

  Millers 4 NE            3.9  1130 AM  2/13  Co-Op Observer         

  Westminster 1 W         3.5   700 AM  2/13  CoCoRaHS               

  Westminster 3 SSW       3.5   700 AM  2/13  CoCoRaHS               

  Watersville 1 N         2.8   927 AM  2/13  Trained Spotter        

  Westminster  SE         2.7   830 AM  2/13  Trained Spotter        

  Wagners Mill 1 ENE      2.5   300 AM  2/13  Trained Spotter        

  Gamber 1 WNW            2.4   800 AM  2/13  NWS Employee           

  Gamber 1 W              2.4   800 AM  2/13  CoCoRaHS               

  Mount Airy  SE          2.3   730 AM  2/13  CoCoRaHS               

  Eldersburg 1 SE         2.0   715 AM  2/13  Trained Spotter        

  Eldersburg 1 E          2.0   700 AM  2/13  CoCoRaHS       

…Baltimore County...

  Parkton 1 W             2.3  1230 PM  2/13  Trained Spotter        

  Randallstown 2 NW       1.8  1000 AM  2/13  Trained Spotter        

  Jacksonville 2 NE       1.7   832 AM  2/13  CoCoRaHS               

  Glyndon 1 SW            1.5   845 AM  2/13  Trained Spotter        

  Timonium  NE            1.4   700 AM  2/13  CoCoRaHS               

  Long Green 2 NW         1.2   800 AM  2/13  Trained Spotter        

  Long Green 1 SW         1.2   700 AM  2/13  CoCoRaHS               

  Catonsville 1 NNW       1.0   800 AM  2/13  CoCoRaHS               

  Perry Hall 1 NNE        1.0   833 AM  2/13  Trained Spotter        

  Towson 1 SW             0.9   830 AM  2/13  CoCoRaHS               

  White Marsh 2 ESE       0.5   700 AM  2/13  CoCoRaHS               

  Edgemere  ESE           0.2  1000 AM  2/13  Trained Spotter        

…Baltimore City…

  Pimlico  SE             1.4   740 AM  2/13  Trained Spotter        

  Hamilton  NE            1.3   600 AM  2/13  CoCoRaHS               

  Mount Washington 1 N    1.3   700 AM  2/13  CoCoRaHS               

 

Pennsylvania 

…York County…

Loganville                   5.0 in    0743 AM 02/13   Trained Spotter

1 ENE Seven Valleys          5.0 in    0741 AM 02/13

1 NW Windsor                 4.8 in    0609 AM 02/13

2 S Parkville                4.5 in    0900 AM 02/13   Trained Spotter

1 S New Salem                3.0 in    0730 AM 02/13   Trained Spotter

Stewartstown 0.5 S           2.5 in    0700 AM 02/13   COCORAHS

1 N Delta                    2.0 in    0915 AM 02/13   Public

Mount Wolf 1.0 SE            2.0 in    0700 AM 02/13   COCORAHS

3 WNW Emigsville             1.8 in    0700 AM 02/13   Public

Valley Green                 1.7 in    0739 AM 02/13   Public

Manchester 0.7 NNW           1.7 in    0700 AM 02/13   COCORAHS

Valley Green 0.8 ENE         1.7 in    0700 AM 02/13   COCORAHS

Manchester 3.6 W             1.5 in    0700 AM 02/13   COCORAHS

East Berlin 3.4 ESE          1.4 in    0600 AM 02/13   COCORAHS

…Lancaster County…

Lancaster 5.8 WNW            4.7 in    0700 AM 02/13   COCORAHS

3 SE Landisville             4.5 in    0752 AM 02/13   Broadcast Media

Rothsville                   4.5 in    0720 AM 02/13   Public

Lititz 0.3 WNW               4.2 in    0800 AM 02/13   COCORAHS

3 NNE Denver                 4.0 in    0930 AM 02/13   Public

Adamstown 2.5 SSE            4.0 in    0700 AM 02/13   COCORAHS

2 NW East Petersburg         4.0 in    0448 AM 02/13   Public

Landisville 1.2 ESE          3.6 in    0700 AM 02/13   COCORAHS

Millersville                 3.2 in    0725 AM 02/13   Trained Spotter

Millersville 1 S             3.2 in    0700 AM 02/13   COOP

2 N Churchtown               3.0 in    0800 AM 02/13   Public

2 SSW Akron                  3.0 in    0400 AM 02/13   Public

Safe Harbor                  2.9 in    0700 AM 02/13   COOP

2 W Lancaster                2.8 in    0600 AM 02/13   Broadcast Media

2 NNE Mount Joy              2.0 in    0849 AM 02/13

Elizabethtown                2.0 in    0825 AM 02/13   Public

Holtwood                     0.5 in    0700 AM 02/13   COOP       

 

Northeast Maryland

…Harford County…

  Norrisville 1 WSW       2.6   700 AM  2/13  CoCoRaHS               

  Forest Hill 1 NNW       2.0   800 AM  2/13  Trained Spotter        

  Chrome Hill 2 SE        2.0   800 AM  2/13  CoCoRaHS               

  Kingsville 3 NNE        1.2  1000 AM  2/13  CoCoRaHS               

  Bel Air 2 W             1.0   700 AM  2/13  CoCoRaHS               

  Forest Hill 3 SW        1.0   810 AM  2/13  Trained Spotter      

 

…Cecil County…

  Elkton 7 N              1.4   700 AM  2/13  CoCoRaHS               

  Elkton 5 NW             1.0   800 AM  2/13  CoCoRaHS               

  Elkton 1 NNW            0.4   800 AM  2/13  CoCoRaHS     

         

North Central Maryland

 

 

…Carroll County…

  Taneytown  NE           4.1   900 AM  2/13  Trained Spotter        

  Taneytown 4 NE          4.0  1000 AM  2/13  CoCoRaHS               

  Manchester 1 SSW        4.0   705 AM  2/13  Trained Spotter        

  Millers 4 NE            3.9  1130 AM  2/13  Co-Op Observer         

  Westminster 1 W         3.5   700 AM  2/13  CoCoRaHS               

  Westminster 3 SSW       3.5   700 AM  2/13  CoCoRaHS               

  Watersville 1 N         2.8   927 AM  2/13  Trained Spotter        

  Westminster  SE         2.7   830 AM  2/13  Trained Spotter        

  Wagners Mill 1 ENE      2.5   300 AM  2/13  Trained Spotter        

  Gamber 1 WNW            2.4   800 AM  2/13  NWS Employee           

  Gamber 1 W              2.4   800 AM  2/13  CoCoRaHS               

  Mount Airy  SE          2.3   730 AM  2/13  CoCoRaHS               

  Eldersburg 1 SE         2.0   715 AM  2/13  Trained Spotter        

  Eldersburg 1 E          2.0   700 AM  2/13  CoCoRaHS       

 

…Frederick County…

  New Market  N           2.5   745 AM  2/13  Trained Spotter        

  Bloomfield 2 WSW        2.5   700 AM  2/13  NWS Employee           

  New Market 2 NW         2.3   950 AM  2/13  CoCoRaHS               

  Thurmont 3 N            2.0   840 AM  2/13  NWS Employee           

  Frederick 1 SW          1.4   750 AM  2/13  CoCoRaHS               

  Point of Rocks 1 NE     1.3   845 AM  2/13  Trained Spotter        

  Buckeystown 3 SW        1.3  1015 AM  2/13  NWS Employee           

  Thurmont 1 SSE          1.2   700 AM  2/13  CoCoRaHS               

  Adamstown 1 ESE         1.1   700 AM  2/13  NWS Employee     

 

…Washington County…

  Hancock 1 ESE           1.5   700 AM  2/13  CoCoRaHS               

  Boonsboro 3 NNE         1.2   730 AM  2/13  Trained Spotter        

  Hagerstown 4 NNW        1.1   700 AM  2/13  CoCoRaHS               

  Williamsport 3 ENE      1.0   600 AM  2/13  CoCoRaHS               

  Sharpsburg 5 S          0.8   700 AM  2/13  Co-Op Observer         

  Hagerstown 1 ENE        0.8   700 AM  2/13  CoCoRaHS     

 



 

Western Maryland Mountains

 

 

…Garrett County…

  McHenry 5 SSE           3.0   800 AM  2/13  CoCoRaHS               

  Deer Park 6 NE          2.0   700 AM  2/13  Trained Spotter        

…Allegany County…

  Frostburg               0.8   700 AM  2/13  Co-Op Observer         

  Cresaptown-Bel Air 1    0.3   700 AM  2/13  CoCoRaHS               

  Cumberland              0.1   700 AM  2/13  Co-Op Observer         

 

 

Washington DC – Baltimore Corridor

 

…Howard County…

  Sykesville 2 SSE        2.0   700 AM  2/13  CoCoRaHS               

  Marriottsville 1 SE     1.7   800 AM  2/13  CoCoRaHS               

  Glenelg 2 N             1.5  1216 PM  2/13  Trained Spotter        

  Columbia 2 N            1.3   100 PM  2/13  Trained Spotter        

  Elkridge 2 W            1.0   830 AM  2/13  Trained Spotter        

  Columbia                0.8   700 AM  2/13  Trained Spotter        

  Laurel 1 NNE            0.4   715 AM  2/13  CoCoRaHS               

  North Laurel 2 ESE      0.3   700 AM  2/13  CoCoRaHS               

…Montgomery County…

  Damascus 3 SSW          2.1   955 AM  2/13  Co-Op Observer         

  Damascus 1 S            2.0   737 AM  2/13  Trained Spotter        

  Clarksburg 1 SSE        1.5  1230 PM  2/13  Trained Spotter        

  Laytonsville 5 NNW      1.5   900 AM  2/13  CoCoRaHS               

  Damascus 1 SE           1.5   930 AM  2/13  Trained Spotter        

  Germantown 2 WSW        1.5  1130 AM  2/13  Trained Spotter        

  Germantown 5 NNE        1.4   800 AM  2/13  CoCoRaHS               

  Poolesville  SE         1.3   800 AM  2/13  CoCoRaHS               

  Montgomery Village 1    1.2   630 AM  2/13  CoCoRaHS               

  Colesville 2 W          1.1   700 AM  2/13  CoCoRaHS               

  Gaithersburg 3 NE       1.1   700 AM  2/13  CoCoRaHS               

  North Potomac 4 N       1.1   700 AM  2/13  CoCoRaHS               

  Norbeck 1 ESE           0.9   700 AM  2/13  CoCoRaHS               

  Potomac 1 NNW           0.8   700 AM  2/13  CoCoRaHS               

  Olney 1 ENE             0.8   640 AM  2/13  CoCoRaHS               

  Rossmoor 1 ESE          0.8   700 AM  2/13  CoCoRaHS               

  Rockville 3 E           0.6   615 AM  2/13  CoCoRaHS               

  Colesville              0.5   840 AM  2/13  Trained Spotter        

  White Oak 1 N           0.5   700 AM  2/13  CoCoRaHS               

  Silver Spring 6 NNE     0.2   440 AM  2/13  CoCoRaHS     

…Anne Arundel County…

  Bwi Airport             0.7   100 PM  2/13  Airport                

  Crofton 2 NNE           0.1   915 AM  2/13  NWS Employee           

  Severn 1 SSE            0.1   800 AM  2/13  CoCoRaHS               

  Odenton 1 N             0.1   830 AM  2/13  CoCoRaHS         

 

Winter Weather Advisory

Issued By NWS

 

Model Final Forecasts

The Latest NAM 3 Km Model was WAY TOO HIGH and I made sure to announce I would not bite.

This was a FAIL!

 

GFS Model

This failed pushing the snow too far south

 

Canadian Model

This was the best performing, but still not perfect.

 

European ECMWF Model

This had the lowest amount of snow. It was close overall, but too low in Western Maryland AND missed the snow burst from Carroll County to southern PA.

It also had too much snow for Northeastern Maryland into northern Delaware.

 

 

Thanks for reading, and following my forecasts. I show all of this information to let you know what I look at in making my call. I hope you enjoy it and maybe learn a thing or two.

Winter is not done, so I will be seeing you even if you only come back for snow.

 

Faith in the Flakes.

 

 

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ALSO SEE

 

What is Faith in the Flakes: History of December 5th Snow

 

ALL FITF GEAR

 

 

 

FITF THUNDERSNOW

 

 

 

 

Winter Outlook Series:

My Call For Snowfall

 

 

Last Winter Recap: My Old Outlook And Your Grades Of My Storm Forecasts

Winter Weather Page – Lots of resources

 

 

Solar Cycle Increasing Sunspots Suggests More Snow

 

Comparing 4 Different Farmer’s Almanacs: Majority colder winter outlook than NOAA

 

NOAA Winter Outlook- But Read The Fine Print

 

Signals For Early Start To Winter In November

 

Winter Outlook Series: La Nina Double Dip

 

Nor’easters May Give Hint For Winter La Nina Pattern

 

Winter Folklore Checklist

 

 

 




Please share your thoughts, best weather pics/video, or just keep in touch via social media

Facebook: Justin Berk, Meteorologist

Twitter: @JustinWeather

Instagram: justinweather

 

 

 

*Disclaimer due to frequent questions:

I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here you may have missed it:

I have dyslexia, and found out at my second year at Cornell.  I didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree, and being first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. 

I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. 

All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky. 

There is no editor that can check my work when I need it and have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. 

I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me…

It’s part of my charm.

#FITF