Sunday February 13 2022
To claim this was a difficult forecast would be an understatement. Our region had three days in a row with high temperatures reaching 60ºF or higher, followed by this snow event. Tracking it and convincing people it would snow when they are wearing shorts and flip flops sounded crazy. My wife didn’t even believe me.
But it happened, with the assist of the overnight hours.
Text From My Wife Shannon This Morning: True Story
The snow results were close compared to my forecast in many areas..
However there was an overachieving burst NorthWest of Baltimore, AND a failure for stickage resulting in much less snow accumulation to the south.
Here’s a quick look at the Regional Snow Reports compared to my First Call and Updated Forecast Maps
Below, please see my notes and participate in Grading My Forecast.
Snow Spotter Reports
Local Maps and lists can be found below.
I hope you can zoom in on your phone. There was a lot of reports here and I tried to annotated in colors to help sort out the data.
My First Call For Snowfall
*I cut off the snow to the north…
My Updated Call For Snowfall
I included more northern areas into PA, and Increased the high end range of 2 to 4 inches. My fail was the snow forecast in Baltimore and south.
Correct:
- It snowed AFTER three days in the 60s. There were a lot of doubters.
- Western Maryland Snow Totals
- A lot of 2” results actually fit in the both the lower (1” to 3” and higher (2” to 4”)
- There was a band of a snow burst, but not in the location I expected.
Incorrect:
- Missed the snow burst from Carroll County to Southern PA. This was best called by the Canadian GEM Model.
- Too much snow for Baltimore and south. It snowed, but was too warm for most to stick.
- Most Roads Ended Up Wet: I presented all of the Information and even allowed for an extra 2 hours extra to delay the arrival of freezing temps, but that wasn’t enough.
- The challenge that has been an issue often this winter was a snow or icing event relying on falling temperatures before sunrise. This is the fourth time that happened. Each time, the cold air was delayed AND seems to stall right around Baltimore.
- You would think we would learn!
**GRADE MY FORECAST POLL**
More local maps, list of spotter reports, and model forecasts can be found below.
Personally I would give myself a C for this overall. There were some A spots, many Bs, but many places I failed as well. Will you grade me on the total event or just your location?
Snow Spotter Reports From NWS For February 13
North Central and Northeast Maryland:
…Carroll County…
Taneytown NE 4.1 900 AM 2/13 Trained Spotter
Taneytown 4 NE 4.0 1000 AM 2/13 CoCoRaHS
Manchester 1 SSW 4.0 705 AM 2/13 Trained Spotter
Millers 4 NE 3.9 1130 AM 2/13 Co-Op Observer
Westminster 1 W 3.5 700 AM 2/13 CoCoRaHS
Westminster 3 SSW 3.5 700 AM 2/13 CoCoRaHS
Watersville 1 N 2.8 927 AM 2/13 Trained Spotter
Westminster SE 2.7 830 AM 2/13 Trained Spotter
Wagners Mill 1 ENE 2.5 300 AM 2/13 Trained Spotter
Gamber 1 WNW 2.4 800 AM 2/13 NWS Employee
Gamber 1 W 2.4 800 AM 2/13 CoCoRaHS
Mount Airy SE 2.3 730 AM 2/13 CoCoRaHS
Eldersburg 1 SE 2.0 715 AM 2/13 Trained Spotter
Eldersburg 1 E 2.0 700 AM 2/13 CoCoRaHS
…Baltimore County...
Parkton 1 W 2.3 1230 PM 2/13 Trained Spotter
Randallstown 2 NW 1.8 1000 AM 2/13 Trained Spotter
Jacksonville 2 NE 1.7 832 AM 2/13 CoCoRaHS
Glyndon 1 SW 1.5 845 AM 2/13 Trained Spotter
Timonium NE 1.4 700 AM 2/13 CoCoRaHS
Long Green 2 NW 1.2 800 AM 2/13 Trained Spotter
Long Green 1 SW 1.2 700 AM 2/13 CoCoRaHS
Catonsville 1 NNW 1.0 800 AM 2/13 CoCoRaHS
Perry Hall 1 NNE 1.0 833 AM 2/13 Trained Spotter
Towson 1 SW 0.9 830 AM 2/13 CoCoRaHS
White Marsh 2 ESE 0.5 700 AM 2/13 CoCoRaHS
Edgemere ESE 0.2 1000 AM 2/13 Trained Spotter
…Baltimore City…
Pimlico SE 1.4 740 AM 2/13 Trained Spotter
Hamilton NE 1.3 600 AM 2/13 CoCoRaHS
Mount Washington 1 N 1.3 700 AM 2/13 CoCoRaHS
Pennsylvania
…York County…
Loganville 5.0 in 0743 AM 02/13 Trained Spotter
1 ENE Seven Valleys 5.0 in 0741 AM 02/13
1 NW Windsor 4.8 in 0609 AM 02/13
2 S Parkville 4.5 in 0900 AM 02/13 Trained Spotter
1 S New Salem 3.0 in 0730 AM 02/13 Trained Spotter
Stewartstown 0.5 S 2.5 in 0700 AM 02/13 COCORAHS
1 N Delta 2.0 in 0915 AM 02/13 Public
Mount Wolf 1.0 SE 2.0 in 0700 AM 02/13 COCORAHS
3 WNW Emigsville 1.8 in 0700 AM 02/13 Public
Valley Green 1.7 in 0739 AM 02/13 Public
Manchester 0.7 NNW 1.7 in 0700 AM 02/13 COCORAHS
Valley Green 0.8 ENE 1.7 in 0700 AM 02/13 COCORAHS
Manchester 3.6 W 1.5 in 0700 AM 02/13 COCORAHS
East Berlin 3.4 ESE 1.4 in 0600 AM 02/13 COCORAHS
…Lancaster County…
Lancaster 5.8 WNW 4.7 in 0700 AM 02/13 COCORAHS
3 SE Landisville 4.5 in 0752 AM 02/13 Broadcast Media
Rothsville 4.5 in 0720 AM 02/13 Public
Lititz 0.3 WNW 4.2 in 0800 AM 02/13 COCORAHS
3 NNE Denver 4.0 in 0930 AM 02/13 Public
Adamstown 2.5 SSE 4.0 in 0700 AM 02/13 COCORAHS
2 NW East Petersburg 4.0 in 0448 AM 02/13 Public
Landisville 1.2 ESE 3.6 in 0700 AM 02/13 COCORAHS
Millersville 3.2 in 0725 AM 02/13 Trained Spotter
Millersville 1 S 3.2 in 0700 AM 02/13 COOP
2 N Churchtown 3.0 in 0800 AM 02/13 Public
2 SSW Akron 3.0 in 0400 AM 02/13 Public
Safe Harbor 2.9 in 0700 AM 02/13 COOP
2 W Lancaster 2.8 in 0600 AM 02/13 Broadcast Media
2 NNE Mount Joy 2.0 in 0849 AM 02/13
Elizabethtown 2.0 in 0825 AM 02/13 Public
Holtwood 0.5 in 0700 AM 02/13 COOP
Northeast Maryland
…Harford County…
Norrisville 1 WSW 2.6 700 AM 2/13 CoCoRaHS
Forest Hill 1 NNW 2.0 800 AM 2/13 Trained Spotter
Chrome Hill 2 SE 2.0 800 AM 2/13 CoCoRaHS
Kingsville 3 NNE 1.2 1000 AM 2/13 CoCoRaHS
Bel Air 2 W 1.0 700 AM 2/13 CoCoRaHS
Forest Hill 3 SW 1.0 810 AM 2/13 Trained Spotter
…Cecil County…
Elkton 7 N 1.4 700 AM 2/13 CoCoRaHS
Elkton 5 NW 1.0 800 AM 2/13 CoCoRaHS
Elkton 1 NNW 0.4 800 AM 2/13 CoCoRaHS
North Central Maryland
…Carroll County…
Taneytown NE 4.1 900 AM 2/13 Trained Spotter
Taneytown 4 NE 4.0 1000 AM 2/13 CoCoRaHS
Manchester 1 SSW 4.0 705 AM 2/13 Trained Spotter
Millers 4 NE 3.9 1130 AM 2/13 Co-Op Observer
Westminster 1 W 3.5 700 AM 2/13 CoCoRaHS
Westminster 3 SSW 3.5 700 AM 2/13 CoCoRaHS
Watersville 1 N 2.8 927 AM 2/13 Trained Spotter
Westminster SE 2.7 830 AM 2/13 Trained Spotter
Wagners Mill 1 ENE 2.5 300 AM 2/13 Trained Spotter
Gamber 1 WNW 2.4 800 AM 2/13 NWS Employee
Gamber 1 W 2.4 800 AM 2/13 CoCoRaHS
Mount Airy SE 2.3 730 AM 2/13 CoCoRaHS
Eldersburg 1 SE 2.0 715 AM 2/13 Trained Spotter
Eldersburg 1 E 2.0 700 AM 2/13 CoCoRaHS
…Frederick County…
New Market N 2.5 745 AM 2/13 Trained Spotter
Bloomfield 2 WSW 2.5 700 AM 2/13 NWS Employee
New Market 2 NW 2.3 950 AM 2/13 CoCoRaHS
Thurmont 3 N 2.0 840 AM 2/13 NWS Employee
Frederick 1 SW 1.4 750 AM 2/13 CoCoRaHS
Point of Rocks 1 NE 1.3 845 AM 2/13 Trained Spotter
Buckeystown 3 SW 1.3 1015 AM 2/13 NWS Employee
Thurmont 1 SSE 1.2 700 AM 2/13 CoCoRaHS
Adamstown 1 ESE 1.1 700 AM 2/13 NWS Employee
…Washington County…
Hancock 1 ESE 1.5 700 AM 2/13 CoCoRaHS
Boonsboro 3 NNE 1.2 730 AM 2/13 Trained Spotter
Hagerstown 4 NNW 1.1 700 AM 2/13 CoCoRaHS
Williamsport 3 ENE 1.0 600 AM 2/13 CoCoRaHS
Sharpsburg 5 S 0.8 700 AM 2/13 Co-Op Observer
Hagerstown 1 ENE 0.8 700 AM 2/13 CoCoRaHS
Western Maryland Mountains
…Garrett County…
McHenry 5 SSE 3.0 800 AM 2/13 CoCoRaHS
Deer Park 6 NE 2.0 700 AM 2/13 Trained Spotter
…Allegany County…
Frostburg 0.8 700 AM 2/13 Co-Op Observer
Cresaptown-Bel Air 1 0.3 700 AM 2/13 CoCoRaHS
Cumberland 0.1 700 AM 2/13 Co-Op Observer
Washington DC – Baltimore Corridor
…Howard County…
Sykesville 2 SSE 2.0 700 AM 2/13 CoCoRaHS
Marriottsville 1 SE 1.7 800 AM 2/13 CoCoRaHS
Glenelg 2 N 1.5 1216 PM 2/13 Trained Spotter
Columbia 2 N 1.3 100 PM 2/13 Trained Spotter
Elkridge 2 W 1.0 830 AM 2/13 Trained Spotter
Columbia 0.8 700 AM 2/13 Trained Spotter
Laurel 1 NNE 0.4 715 AM 2/13 CoCoRaHS
North Laurel 2 ESE 0.3 700 AM 2/13 CoCoRaHS
…Montgomery County…
Damascus 3 SSW 2.1 955 AM 2/13 Co-Op Observer
Damascus 1 S 2.0 737 AM 2/13 Trained Spotter
Clarksburg 1 SSE 1.5 1230 PM 2/13 Trained Spotter
Laytonsville 5 NNW 1.5 900 AM 2/13 CoCoRaHS
Damascus 1 SE 1.5 930 AM 2/13 Trained Spotter
Germantown 2 WSW 1.5 1130 AM 2/13 Trained Spotter
Germantown 5 NNE 1.4 800 AM 2/13 CoCoRaHS
Poolesville SE 1.3 800 AM 2/13 CoCoRaHS
Montgomery Village 1 1.2 630 AM 2/13 CoCoRaHS
Colesville 2 W 1.1 700 AM 2/13 CoCoRaHS
Gaithersburg 3 NE 1.1 700 AM 2/13 CoCoRaHS
North Potomac 4 N 1.1 700 AM 2/13 CoCoRaHS
Norbeck 1 ESE 0.9 700 AM 2/13 CoCoRaHS
Potomac 1 NNW 0.8 700 AM 2/13 CoCoRaHS
Olney 1 ENE 0.8 640 AM 2/13 CoCoRaHS
Rossmoor 1 ESE 0.8 700 AM 2/13 CoCoRaHS
Rockville 3 E 0.6 615 AM 2/13 CoCoRaHS
Colesville 0.5 840 AM 2/13 Trained Spotter
White Oak 1 N 0.5 700 AM 2/13 CoCoRaHS
Silver Spring 6 NNE 0.2 440 AM 2/13 CoCoRaHS
…Anne Arundel County…
Bwi Airport 0.7 100 PM 2/13 Airport
Crofton 2 NNE 0.1 915 AM 2/13 NWS Employee
Severn 1 SSE 0.1 800 AM 2/13 CoCoRaHS
Odenton 1 N 0.1 830 AM 2/13 CoCoRaHS
Winter Weather Advisory
Issued By NWS
Model Final Forecasts
The Latest NAM 3 Km Model was WAY TOO HIGH and I made sure to announce I would not bite.
This was a FAIL!
GFS Model
This failed pushing the snow too far south
Canadian Model
This was the best performing, but still not perfect.
European ECMWF Model
This had the lowest amount of snow. It was close overall, but too low in Western Maryland AND missed the snow burst from Carroll County to southern PA.
It also had too much snow for Northeastern Maryland into northern Delaware.
Thanks for reading, and following my forecasts. I show all of this information to let you know what I look at in making my call. I hope you enjoy it and maybe learn a thing or two.
Winter is not done, so I will be seeing you even if you only come back for snow.
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ALSO SEE
What is Faith in the Flakes: History of December 5th Snow
ALL FITF GEAR
FITF THUNDERSNOW
Winter Outlook Series:
Last Winter Recap: My Old Outlook And Your Grades Of My Storm Forecasts
Winter Weather Page – Lots of resources
Solar Cycle Increasing Sunspots Suggests More Snow
Comparing 4 Different Farmer’s Almanacs: Majority colder winter outlook than NOAA
NOAA Winter Outlook- But Read The Fine Print
Signals For Early Start To Winter In November
Winter Outlook Series: La Nina Double Dip
Nor’easters May Give Hint For Winter La Nina Pattern
Winter Folklore Checklist
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*Disclaimer due to frequent questions:
I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here you may have missed it:
I have dyslexia, and found out at my second year at Cornell. I didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree, and being first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region.
I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse.
All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky.
There is no editor that can check my work when I need it and have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline.
I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me…
It’s part of my charm.
#FITF