March 3 2019 Snow Totals And Grade My Forecast

March 3 2019 Snow Totals And Grade My Forecast

March 4 2019

The snow event for Sunday March 3, 2019 was the third in a series of winter events to start the month of March. This post has the official snow spotter reports from The National Weather Service. See that list below. But also compare the region snowfall to my forecast. There was definitely an area that did not get what was expected. However there were plenty in the cold zone that did get their snow, while the rain zone was easy to verify to the south as well.

 

Regional Snow Totals

See the spotter maps and list of snowfall below…

 

My Snow Forecast

 

This was the strongest and the most challenging. One issue was timing and the other was track.  Being a March storm, snow during the day had trouble sticking. The temps above freezing did not help with those wasted flakes, but that was expected during the day.

The other factor was the track. The Mid Atlantic often is subjected to a snow/rain somewhere along Interstate 95. This area separates the warmer coastal plain from the colder inland hills and piedmont.  This storm is one I advertised as having a nearly a 40 mile spread from 4″+ snow to near zero.

 

My Forecast and My Error

I intentionally stayed a little lower than NWS. But that was not good enough. I accounted for the lack of stickage during the daylight. But where there was stickage in the evening was fighting the rain line that moved about 20 miles north through Baltimore.

The northern 5 too 8 inch range ended up with 3 to 6. That was just on the low end or just below the low end… but they got snow.

The ‘slushy coating to 3 inches’ did get snow, that did not stick during the day. This can be considered as a qualifier, but did still leave many wanting more. This region did turn over to rain for the most of the evening. That was expected and shown on most model maps I shared.

My Error

My southern edge of 3 to 6 inches of snow was about 20 to 30 miles off. That impacted the most densely populated area. So many expecting at least three, barely got 1 inch. It may have seemed like a total bust, but the snow line was really a short drive away.

The NAM 3 KM Model won! I showed this contrasting the European ECMWF Model which was colder. The NAM had a warmer and more north solution with the snow line. While I did not chose to give it credit, I showed it for the potential bust on the warm side, and it was the more accurate model this time. That 20 to 30 mile adjustment was all the difference for over nearly 300,000 people.

NAM 3 KmEuropean

Please see the formal reports below and then grade my forecast. I know we might have a different definition of what a ‘bust’ is… I know there was the middle area that missed the accumulation. But overall that was about 30% of my forecast region. For that, I would give my forecast for the region a grade of a C. This includes northern Maryland and Southern PA where it was an A, to the miss in the middle.

Snow Maps And List (from NWS Sterling VA)

Southern PA

The average of 3 to 6 inches of snow fell between Adams, York, and Lancaster Counties.

 

Maryland and Virginia

Closer view maps and list below.

 

********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL********************

LOCATION          STORM TOTAL     TIME/DATE   COMMENTS                   
                     SNOWFALL           OF 
                     /INCHES/   MEASUREMENT
      

MARYLAND

...Allegany County...
   Frostburg  SE          6.0  1159 PM  3/03  Trained Spotter         
   Frostburg              6.0   700 AM  3/04  Co-Op Observer          
   Mount Savage           6.0   826 PM  3/03  Trained Spotter         
   La Vale                5.5  1140 PM  3/03  Dept of Highways        
   Ridgeley 1 NW          5.5   823 AM  3/04  Trained Spotter         
   Frostburg 2 ENE        5.0  1152 PM  3/03  Trained Spotter         
   Cresaptown  SSW        4.8  1025 PM  3/03  Trained Spotter         
   Cumberland             4.3   700 AM  3/04  Co-Op Observer          

...Anne Arundel County...
   Chelsea Beach          0.5   800 AM  3/04  CoCoRaHS                
   Fort Meade 1 NNE       0.2   700 AM  3/04  CoCoRaHS                
   Bwi Airport            0.2  1200 AM  3/04  Co-Op Observer          
   Odenton 1 NNE          0.2   700 AM  3/04  CoCoRaHS                

...Baltimore County...
   Lineboro 4 E           5.0   946 AM  3/04  Trained Spotter         
   Bentley Springs 2 WS   5.0   950 AM  3/04  Trained Spotter         
   Bentley Springs 6 S    3.0   422 AM  3/04  Dept of Highways        
   Bentley Springs 1 E    2.8   600 AM  3/04  Trained Spotter         
   Parkton 1 W            2.5   735 AM  3/04  Trained Spotter         
   Norrisville 3 W        2.3  1045 PM  3/03  Trained Spotter         
   Owings Mills           1.5  1139 PM  3/03  Dept of Highways        
   Long Green             1.2   700 AM  3/04  CoCoRaHS                
   Towson                 1.1   830 AM  3/04  CoCoRaHS                
   Long Green 2 NW        1.0   520 PM  3/03  Trained Spotter         
   Long Green 3 NW        1.0   800 AM  3/04  CoCoRaHS                
   Reisterstown 1 ESE     1.0   530 PM  3/03  Trained Spotter         
   Upper Falls 1 NNE      0.9   530 PM  3/03  Trained Spotter         
   Jacksonville 2 NE      0.5   853 AM  3/04  CoCoRaHS                

...Baltimore City...
   Pimlico  SE            1.0   555 PM  3/03  Trained Spotter         
   Pikesville 2 ESE       1.0   700 AM  3/04  CoCoRaHS        

...Harford County... 
Norrisville               5.2    610 AM  3/04  CoCoRaHS 
Norrisville  2 ESE        5.0    1005 AM 3/04 Trained Spotter 
Scarboro 2 E              1.5    947 PM  3/03 Trained Spotter 
Churchville               1.5    1138 PM 3/03 Dept of Highways 
Pleasant Hills            1.2    700 AM  3/04 CoCoRaHS 
Fallston 1 NW             1.1    400 PM  3/03 Trained Spotter 
Bel Air 1 W               1.0    700 AM  3/04 CoCoRaHS      

   

...Carroll County...
   Millers 4 NE           4.9  1215 AM  3/04  Co-Op Observer          
   Manchester 1 SSW       4.3  1130 PM  3/03  Trained Spotter         
   Westminster 2 N        4.0   943 AM  3/04  Trained Spotter         
   Westminster 2 SE       2.0  1000 PM  3/03  Trained Spotter         
   Gamber                 1.2   619 AM  3/04  CoCoRaHS                
   Eldersburg 1 SE        0.9   445 PM  3/03  Trained Spotter         
   Eldersburg 1 E         0.9   700 AM  3/04  CoCoRaHS                

...Frederick County...
   Sabillasville 1 NNW    7.3  1052 PM  3/03  CoCoRaHS                
   Thurmont 3 N           6.5   700 AM  3/04  CoCoRaHS                
   Sabillasville 2 SSE    5.8   830 AM  3/04  Trained Spotter         
   Thurmont               3.5   700 AM  3/04  CoCoRaHS                
   Bloomfield 2 WSW       2.8  1030 PM  3/03  NWS Employee            
   Emmitsburg 2 SE        2.5   625 AM  3/04  Co-Op Observer          
   New Market 2 NNW       2.0   315 AM  3/04  CoCoRaHS                
   Walkersville  ESE      1.7   720 PM  3/03  Trained Spotter         
   Adamstown 1 ESE        0.5   600 PM  3/03  Trained Spotter         
   Frederick 1 NW         0.3   430 PM  3/03  Trained Spotter     

    

               

...Howard County...
   Gaither 1 ESE          1.2   700 AM  3/04  CoCoRaHS                
   Columbia 2 N           0.6   700 AM  3/04  CoCoRaHS                
   Elkridge 2 W           0.5   405 PM  3/03  Trained Spotter         
   Columbia 1 N           0.5   700 AM  3/04  CoCoRaHS                
   Marriottsville         0.5   800 AM  3/04  CoCoRaHS                
   Sykesville 2 SSE       0.5   700 AM  3/04  CoCoRaHS                
   Elkridge 1 W           0.4   700 AM  3/04  CoCoRaHS                
   Simpsonville 1 SSE     0.3   335 PM  3/03  Trained Spotter         
   Laurel 1 NNE           0.2   700 AM  3/04  CoCoRaHS                
   Columbia               0.1   400 PM  3/03  NWS Employee            

...Montgomery County...
   Damascus 3 SSW         0.8   700 AM  3/04  Co-Op Observer          
   Rockville 3 NNW        0.3   630 AM  3/04  NWS Employee            
   Colesville 1 W         0.1   700 AM  3/04  CoCoRaHS                
   Clarksburg 3 E         0.1   240 PM  3/03  Trained Spotter         
   Norbeck 1 ESE          0.1   700 AM  3/04  CoCoRaHS                
   Potomac                0.1   700 AM  3/04  CoCoRaHS                
   Montgomery Village     0.1   700 AM  3/04  CoCoRaHS                

...Washington County...
   Long Meadow 1 WNW      6.0   939 PM  3/03  Trained Spotter         
   Warrenton 2 SSW        5.3   930 PM  3/03  Trained Spotter         
   Long Meadow 2 W        5.1   929 PM  3/03  CoCoRaHS                
   Long Meadow 1 SSE      5.0  1120 PM  3/03  Trained Spotter         
   Hagerstown             5.0   700 AM  3/04  CoCoRaHS                
   Hancock 1 ESE          4.6  1000 PM  3/03  CoCoRaHS                
   Halfway                3.8   600 AM  3/04  CoCoRaHS                
   Boonsboro 3 NNE        3.7   600 AM  3/04  Trained Spotter         
   Pecktonville 3 NNW     2.9   653 PM  3/03  NWS Employee            
   Sharpsburg 5 S         1.4   700 AM  3/04  Co-Op Observer          

 

 

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Related Links:

Winter Outlook

My Winter Outlook 2018-19: Multiple Nor’Easters and more snow

Was Your County Not Included?

Click this map for more on the regional forecast zones

Interactive Snow Report

November 15 Snow Reports- Interactive Map Compared To My Forecast

Winter Snow And Top 5 Wet Years 

Snowfall Seasons at Beginning and End of Top 5 Wet Years In Baltimore

 

Related Winter Outlooks

Tropical Hints At Winter Snow

Solar Cycle: When Sun Spots Are Low We Get More Snow

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Sweet Spot: Hitting 70ºF on Halloween is followed by more winter snow

Will A Wet Summer Bring A Snowy Winter?

 

Winter Weather Folklore

NOAA Winter 2018-2019 Outlook Explained: This Actually Supports Snow

Winter Outlook From Two Different Farmers Almanacs

Maryland Winters: Snowfall Maps and Baltimore Snow History