A Little Update On A Little Snow Friday Morning

A Little Update On A Little Snow Friday Morning

Tuesday February 26 Evening Update

The winds have settled done and the cold air has settled in. The next weather event of interest for the week will be on Friday morning. It will be a light event with possible minor impact. But that has been enough to raise the concern and fill my inbox with questions about plans.

The afternoon model package may have looked unimpressive. Initially this looked like a snow event with the potential for a dusting to 2 inches. Not all models see this the same, and that is still the case. But before losing interest,  and definitely before blowing things out of proportion, I wanted to show the latest look. 

Weather Animation: 

  • Friday Morning: Light snow
  • Saturday: Rain

 

There will be some light snow Friday morning and likely done by noon. Comparing a few models, there was still a spread of how this may behave. The range is from just a little to just enough to possibly impact the roads for a few hours.

The GFS model showed no accumulation and the European (ECMWF) looked less impressive. But the NAM 12 Km still has a decent event. 

 

Friday Morning 7 AM Model Snapshots

American GFS Model

 

European Model

The spotty snow is much less than the previous model (shown below). This model does not often abruptly change like this… So I really think we need to see how the overnight projection looks.

Earlier European Model Run

 

NAM 12 Km Model

This model does have a tendency to overdo some events.

 

Notes

  • I don’t like to abruptly change my outlook with one model run. We need to see how these behave tonight to see if there is a trend to less or we are back to earlier thoughts. 
  • I need to point out that the earlier thoughts were for between a dusting to 2 inches. Still not a big event, but potential for some impact. 
  • I will have the next model run in my morning report. Then we can compare and look for trends one way or the other…

FITF 

The first half of March looks colder than average and more chances for snow to revisit is well with reason. 

 

Temperature Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

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Related Links:

Winter Outlook

My Winter Outlook 2018-19: Multiple Nor’Easters and more snow

Was Your County Not Included?

Click this map for more on the regional forecast zones

Interactive Snow Report

November 15 Snow Reports- Interactive Map Compared To My Forecast

Winter Snow And Top 5 Wet Years 

Snowfall Seasons at Beginning and End of Top 5 Wet Years In Baltimore

 

Related Winter Outlooks

Tropical Hints At Winter Snow

Solar Cycle: When Sun Spots Are Low We Get More Snow

El Nino Modoki May Enhance Snow Chances

Sweet Spot: Hitting 70ºF on Halloween is followed by more winter snow

Will A Wet Summer Bring A Snowy Winter?

 

Winter Weather Folklore

NOAA Winter 2018-2019 Outlook Explained: This Actually Supports Snow

Winter Outlook From Two Different Farmers Almanacs

Maryland Winters: Snowfall Maps and Baltimore Snow History

February 26th, 2019|Tags: , , , , |