Snow Report For February 20 2019 Storm And Grade My Forecast

Snow Report For February 20 2019 Storm And Grade My Forecast

February 21 2019

The winter storm proved itself to be a day long mess. Just a day later we reached the 50s and much of that melted away. Before we skip into the next event, I wanted to recap this storm and give you a chance to grade my forecast for the snow that fell and the ice that followed. Most areas did reach their snow expectations. There were some surprises in northern Carroll County on the lower end. But the timeline and extended ice were things I hope you were prepared for with my updates.

Snow Totals For February 20 2019

 

This was the most consistent event we had with widespread coverage of snow. I hope that you were able to read my reports and get the information to help you plan and get what you expected.  I am aware my website has had a surge of traffic that made connection difficult at times. There is a solution and it should be fully operational in the next few weeks. Thank you for your patience.

Here is a look at my forecast. There was a slight adjustment the night before, primarily to add higher snow totals to Cecil and Kent Counties in Maryland. That worked out.  Please see my snowcat map and forecast notes one last time. This is what I posted in all the storm posts.  Below is a slider of central Maryland County spotter reports (from NWS Sterling) plus final snowfall reports listed.

I welcome your thoughts and grade of my forecast for your area:

 

My Call For Snowfall

February 19 winter storm watch snow forecast map

Zone A:

  • 5″ to 8″ of snow. *Bust potential for less snow if the ice arrives sooner. The white circled region can get up to 12″ if they stay all snow longer.
  • The highest snow may be where it begins earlier allowing for more stickage before late morning.
  • This Zone will have the most snow and heaviest icing Wednesday night

Zone B:

  • 3″ to 6″ of snow. It will fall heavy at times in the morning. They higher end is based on heavy bursts… But if sleet moves in sooner, then the lower end will be more common.
  • Change over will be around lunchtime (between 11 AM and 3 PM).
  • I expanded this zone to include Kent, Queen Annes, and Caroline Countes.
  • Moderate icing in sleet and freeing rain
  • Should change to rain from south to north between 3 PM and 8 PM Wednesday.

Zone C

  • 1″ to 3″ of snow.
  • Faster change over to icing and then rain during the day.

What I got Right

  • The dry air and virga delaying the first fakes for snow
  • This virga helped to make temps colder
  • The quick pick up of intensity to 1″/Hr at times
  • Snow rates would lead to road stickage easily through mid day.
  • Change over to ice in the afternoon
  • Ice lasted longer than models suggested. Many areas never thawed until this morning.

What I got Wrong

  • Some snow totals in Zone A did not reach the low end (parts of Carroll County). But many did get there
  • The circled higher zone did not verify, but they were in the highest totals as shown in the map at the top.
  • Thundersnow! I did not see that coming. It was reported near Cumberland/Hagerstown at 9:30 AM and by BWI around 10 AM.

 

My Grade?

I think I earned an A- on this one… Even in the areas that got a little lower than the range, the extended ice was something I was glad I emphasized. What do you think? See the maps and list below, then let me know .

Please share your thoughts, best weather pics/video, or just keep in touch via social media

 

Local Snow Spotter Maps

County snow maps —> slider

 

Snow Report List

 

********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL********************

LOCATION          STORM TOTAL     TIME/DATE   COMMENTS                   
                     SNOWFALL           OF 
                     /INCHES/   MEASUREMENT

MARYLAND

...Allegany County...
   Ridgeley 1 W          10.0   400 PM  2/20  Trained Spotter         
   Ridgeley 1 NW          7.5  1217 PM  2/20  Trained Spotter         
   Frostburg 2 ENE        6.5   212 PM  2/20  Trained Spotter         
   Westernport            6.5  1030 AM  2/21  Trained Spotter         
   Frostburg  SE          6.0   910 PM  2/20  Trained Spotter         

...Anne Arundel County...
   Severn  NE             5.0   154 PM  2/20  Trained Spotter         
   Chelsea Beach  NNE     4.8   100 PM  2/20  Trained Spotter         
   Bwi Airport            4.5   700 PM  2/20  Airport                 
   Green Haven 1 ESE      4.5   210 PM  2/20  Trained Spotter         
   Linthicum              4.0   800 PM  2/20  Trained Spotter         
   Odenton                3.8   130 PM  2/20  Trained Spotter         
   Odenton 1 WSW          2.2  1245 PM  2/20  Trained Spotter         
   Parole 2 NE            2.2  1201 PM  2/20  Trained Spotter         
   Glen Burnie  SE        2.0   434 PM  2/20  Trained Spotter         
   Annapolis 1 NW         2.0  1200 PM  2/20  Trained Spotter         
   Churchton  ENE         1.2   100 PM  2/20  Trained Spotter         

...Baltimore County...
   Middle River 1 N       5.3   514 PM  2/20  Trained Spotter         
   Bentley Springs 5 SS   4.5  1255 PM  2/20  Trained Spotter         
   Bentley Springs 1 E    4.3   130 PM  2/20  Trained Spotter         
   Upper Falls 2 SW       4.2   130 PM  2/20  Trained Spotter         
   Parkton 1 W            4.0   115 PM  2/20  Trained Spotter         
   Long Green 4 NNW       4.0  1233 PM  2/20  Trained Spotter         
   Catonsville 1 SSE      4.0   130 PM  2/20  Trained Spotter         
   Long Green 2 NW        4.0   100 PM  2/20  Trained Spotter         
   Perry Hall 1 NNE       4.0   152 PM  2/20  Trained Spotter         
   Pikesville             4.0   436 PM  2/20  Trained Spotter         
   Catonsville 2 WNW      4.0   130 PM  2/20  Trained Spotter         
   Upper Falls 1 NNE      3.9   200 PM  2/20  Trained Spotter         
   Jacksonville 2 NE      3.9   245 PM  2/20  Trained Spotter         
   Brooklandville 2 NNW   3.7   115 PM  2/20  Trained Spotter         
   Cockeysville 1 WNW     3.6  1218 PM  2/20  Trained Spotter         
   South Gate 1 NW        3.6   139 PM  2/20  Trained Spotter         
   Lansdowne 1 ESE        3.1   130 PM  2/20  Trained Spotter         
   Reisterstown           3.0  1152 AM  2/20  County Emrg Mgmt        
   Glyndon 1 SW           3.0  1154 AM  2/20  Trained Spotter         

...Baltimore City...
   Pimlico  SE            4.3   120 PM  2/20  Trained Spotter         

...Calvert County...
   Prince Frederick 1 S   1.2   215 PM  2/20  Trained Spotter         
   Dunkirk 2 SSW          1.0  1140 AM  2/20  Trained Spotter         
   Dowell 2 NE            0.8  1140 AM  2/20  Trained Spotter         

...Carroll County...
   Gamber 2 WNW           6.2   141 PM  2/20  Trained Spotter         
   Westminster 2 SE       5.5   130 PM  2/20  Trained Spotter         
   Wagners Mill 1 ENE     5.0  1214 PM  2/20  Trained Spotter         
   Eldersburg 1 SW        4.6   315 PM  2/20  Trained Spotter         
   Reese 1 S              4.5  1215 PM  2/20  Trained Spotter         
   Lineboro 3 WSW         4.5  1246 PM  2/20  Trained Spotter         
   Manchester 1 SSW       4.4  1246 PM  2/20  Trained Spotter         
   Oakland 1 W            4.1   100 PM  2/20  Trained Spotter         
   Uniontown 2 S          4.0   100 PM  2/20  Trained Spotter         
   Sykesville             3.8  1245 PM  2/20  Trained Spotter         
   Eldersburg 1 SE        3.7  1230 PM  2/20  Trained Spotter         
   Reese 3 W              3.0   445 PM  2/20  Trained Spotter         

...Frederick County...
   Sabillasville 1 NNW    7.5   300 PM  2/20  CoCoRaHS                
   Thurmont 3 N           7.2   700 AM  2/21  NWS Employee            
   Sabillasville 2 SSE    6.5  1230 PM  2/20  Trained Spotter         
   Point of Rocks 1 NE    5.9  1210 PM  2/20  Trained Spotter         
   Adamstown 1 ESE        5.5   105 PM  2/20  Trained Spotter         
   Myersville 2 SE        5.5  1200 PM  2/20  Trained Spotter         
   Frederick 1 SSE        5.5  1150 AM  2/20  Trained Spotter         
   Ballenger Creek 1 W    5.5  1224 PM  2/20  Trained Spotter         
   Bloomfield 2 WSW       5.3  1200 PM  2/20  NWS Employee            
   Walkersville 1 E       5.1   639 PM  2/20  Trained Spotter         
   Mount Pleasant 2 S     5.0  1200 PM  2/20  Trained Spotter         
   Walkersville  ESE      5.0  1205 PM  2/20  Trained Spotter         
   Park Mills 3 ESE       4.9  1221 PM  2/20  Trained Spotter         
   New Market 2 NW        4.8  1215 PM  2/20  Trained Spotter         
   New Market  N          4.5   150 PM  2/20  Trained Spotter         

...Harford County...
   Fallston 1 NW          4.3   100 PM  2/20  Trained Spotter         
   Abingdon 3 WNW         4.1   200 PM  2/20  Other Federal           
   Bel Air 1 NNE          4.0   100 PM  2/20  Trained Spotter         
   Abingdon 1 SE          3.5   100 PM  2/20  Trained Spotter         
   Benson 3 ESE           3.5   130 PM  2/20  Trained Spotter         
   Bel Air 3 E            3.5   625 PM  2/20  Trained Spotter         
   Scarboro 2 E           3.0   723 PM  2/20  Trained Spotter         

...Howard County...
   Simpsonville  E        5.7   200 PM  2/20  Trained Spotter         
   Simpsonville 1 SSE     5.6  1200 AM  2/21  Trained Spotter         
   Columbia               5.5  1200 PM  2/20  NWS Employee            
   Granite 1 SSE          5.2  1145 PM  2/20  Trained Spotter         
   Columbia 3 E           5.0  1200 PM  2/20  Trained Spotter         
   Columbia 3 ENE         5.0   100 PM  2/20  Trained Spotter         
   Savage 2 WNW           5.0  1200 PM  2/20  Trained Spotter         
   Elkridge 2 W           5.0  1255 PM  2/20  Trained Spotter         
   Elkridge 2 WNW         4.9   135 PM  2/20  Trained Spotter         
   Columbia 2 N           4.8   855 PM  2/20  Trained Spotter         
   Savage 1 ESE           4.8  1245 PM  2/20  Trained Spotter         
   Elkridge 2 WSW         4.8  1225 PM  2/20  Trained Spotter         
   Ellicott City 3 WNW    4.7  1230 PM  2/20  Trained Spotter         
   Roxbury Mills 2 ESE    4.7   100 PM  2/20  Trained Spotter         
   Ellicott City 1 NW     4.5   826 PM  2/20  Trained Spotter         
   Simpsonville 2 NNW     4.5  1236 PM  2/20  Trained Spotter         
   Simpsonville 1 W       4.5   330 PM  2/20  Trained Spotter         
   Elkridge 3 WNW         4.5   104 PM  2/20  Trained Spotter         
   Elkridge               4.3   645 PM  2/20  NWS Employee            
   Gaither 2 SE           4.2   209 PM  2/20  CoCoRaHS                
   Oella 1 SW             4.1   130 PM  2/20  Trained Spotter         
   Elkridge 3 W           4.0   230 PM  2/20  Trained Spotter         
   Ilchester 2 WSW        4.0  1245 PM  2/20  Trained Spotter         
   Laurel 2 N             4.0   400 PM  2/20  Trained Spotter         
   Savage 1 N             4.0  1200 PM  2/20  Trained Spotter         
   Ellicott City          4.0   100 PM  2/20  Broadcast Media         
   Ellicott City 3 NNE    3.3  1239 PM  2/20  Trained Spotter         
   Hanover  ENE           3.3   100 PM  2/20  Trained Spotter         

...Montgomery County...
   Germantown             6.1  1230 PM  2/20  Private Company         
   Damascus 3 SSW         5.2  1215 PM  2/20  Co-Op Observer          
   Rockville 3 NNW        5.2   100 PM  2/20  NWS Employee            
   Rockville  NNE         5.2   415 PM  2/20  Trained Spotter         
   Garrett Park 1 ENE     5.0  1205 PM  2/20  Trained Spotter         
   Fairland 1 NNE         5.0   200 PM  2/20  Trained Spotter         
   Gaithersburg           5.0  1215 PM  2/20  County Emrg Mgmt        
   Clarksburg 3 E         5.0  1215 PM  2/20  Trained Spotter         
   Montgomery Village 1   4.8  1240 PM  2/20  Trained Spotter         
   Garrett Park 1 WSW     4.7  1225 PM  2/20  Trained Spotter         
   Glenmont 1 NNE         4.7   134 PM  2/20  Trained Spotter         
   Fairland 1 W           4.5  1230 PM  2/20  Trained Spotter         
   Olney 1 ESE            4.5   115 PM  2/20  Trained Spotter         
   Rockville 2 WNW        4.5  1145 AM  2/20  Trained Spotter         
   Norbeck 1 ESE          4.4   630 AM  2/21  Trained Spotter         
   Rockville 2 SSW        4.3   130 PM  2/20  Trained Spotter         
   Chevy Chase            4.0  1152 AM  2/20  County Emrg Mgmt        
   Potomac 1 ENE          4.0   230 PM  2/20  Trained Spotter         
   Chevy Chase Section    3.9   230 PM  2/20  Trained Spotter         
   Garrett Park 1 N       3.5   300 PM  2/20  Trained Spotter         
   Takoma Park  E         3.2  1230 PM  2/20  Trained Spotter         
   Potomac 1 N            2.8  1140 AM  2/20  Trained Spotter         

...Prince Georges County...
   Savage 1 WNW           4.9  1230 PM  2/20  Trained Spotter         
   College Park 1 SW      3.2  1220 PM  2/20  Trained Spotter         
   College Park 1 NE      3.0  1145 AM  2/20  Trained Spotter         
   University Park 1 E    3.0   110 PM  2/20  NWS Office              
   College Park 1 ENE     2.6   245 PM  2/20  Trained Spotter         
   Marlton 1 WSW          1.8   330 PM  2/20  Trained Spotter         

...Washington County...
   Hancock 1 ESE          6.8   100 PM  2/20  NWS Employee            
   Long Meadow 1 SSE      6.5   300 PM  2/20  Trained Spotter         
   Hagerstown 3 NW        6.0   230 PM  2/20  CoCoRaHS                
   Boonsboro 3 NNE        5.4  1210 PM  2/20  Trained Spotter         
   Halfway 1 NE           2.0  1201 PM  2/20  Trained Spotter     


Upper Eastern Shore
...Cecil County...
1 SSE Pleasant Hill          3.4 in    0700 PM 02/20   Trained Spotter
Fair Hill                    3.4 in    0145 PM 02/20   Public
Elkton                       3.3 in    0100 PM 02/20   Cocorahs

...Kent County...
Rock Hall                    3.6 in    0218 PM 02/20   Trained Spotter
Millington                   3.1 in    0115 PM 02/20   Trained Spotter

...Talbot County...
Royal Oak                    0.5 in    1200 PM 02/20   CO-OP Observer

Pennsylvania York County verified 4 to 6 inches... Even in the southern part of the county not listed here. 

VIRGINIA

...Arlington County...
   Ballston 1 SW          3.9   230 PM  2/20  Trained Spotter         
   Baileys Crossroads 1   3.4   200 PM  2/20  Trained Spotter         
   Reagan National Apt    2.6   700 PM  2/20  Airport                 
   Arlington  S           2.2   250 PM  2/20  Trained Spotter         

...Augusta County...
   Greenville             3.0   730 PM  2/20  Broadcast Media         
   Fishersville 1 NE      3.0   200 PM  2/20  Trained Spotter         
   Waynesboro             2.5   730 PM  2/20  Broadcast Media         

...City of Alexandria...
   Alexandria 1 W         2.7  1200 PM  2/20  Trained Spotter         

...City of Fairfax...
   Merrifield 1 SE        4.5  1210 PM  2/20  Trained Spotter         
   Fairfax 1 N            3.7  1230 PM  2/20  NWS Employee            
   Fairfax 1 ESE          2.8   108 PM  2/20  Trained Spotter         

...Clarke County...
   Boyce 3 NNW            6.5  1200 PM  2/20  Trained Spotter         
   Berryville 1 NNW       5.2  1140 AM  2/20  Trained Spotter         

...Fairfax County...
   Reston 2 N             4.9   130 PM  2/20  Trained Spotter         
   Herndon 2 ENE          4.8  1157 AM  2/20  Trained Spotter         
   Herndon 1 NNE          4.5  1200 PM  2/20  NWS Employee            
   Vienna                 4.2  1242 PM  2/20  Co-Op Observer          
   Chantilly 3 N          4.1   100 PM  2/20  NWS Employee            
   Annandale 1 E          4.0   121 PM  2/20  Trained Spotter         
   Chantilly 1 E          3.9  1220 PM  2/20  NWS Employee            
   Burke 2 NW             3.8   130 PM  2/20  Trained Spotter         
   Chantilly 2 NNE        3.6  1227 PM  2/20  Trained Spotter         
   Vienna 1 WNW           3.5  1219 PM  2/20  Trained Spotter         
   Rose Hill  ENE         3.5   200 PM  2/20  Trained Spotter         
   Langley 1 SE           3.5  1215 PM  2/20  Trained Spotter         
   Centreville  W         3.5   230 PM  2/20  Trained Spotter         
   Franconia 1 SSW        3.3   105 PM  2/20  Trained Spotter         
   Falls Church  SE       3.2  1158 AM  2/20  Trained Spotter         
   Vienna 1 S             3.0  1211 PM  2/20  Trained Spotter         
   West Springfield 1 W   2.8  1230 PM  2/20  Trained Spotter         
   Chantilly 1 NW         1.1   100 PM  2/20  Trained Spotter         

...Fauquier County...
   Broken Hill 2 E        3.3  1200 PM  2/20  NWS Employee            
   Opal 1 NW              2.9   300 PM  2/20  Trained Spotter         

...Frederick County...
   Winchester 4 ENE       8.0   203 PM  2/20  Trained Spotter         

...Highland County...
   Monterey 2 WSW         3.0  1155 AM  2/20  Trained Spotter         

...Loudoun County...
   Lovettsville 2 ENE     6.2  1200 PM  2/20  Trained Spotter         
   Purcellville           5.5  1225 PM  2/20  NWS Employee            
   Ashburn                5.3  1208 PM  2/20  NWS Employee            
   Purcellville 2 NNE     5.3  1145 AM  2/20  Trained Spotter         
   Leesburg 2 E           5.0  1220 PM  2/20  Trained Spotter         
   Ashburn 1 NNE          5.0  1212 PM  2/20  NWS Employee            
   Hillsboro 3 NW         5.0   125 PM  2/20  Trained Spotter         
   Dulles International   4.7   700 PM  2/20  Airport                 
   Hughesville 1 ESE      4.5  1215 PM  2/20  Trained Spotter         
   Arcola 2 SSE           4.5  1202 PM  2/20  NWS Employee            
   Leesburg 2 WNW         4.3   200 PM  2/20  NWS Employee            

...Nelson County...
   Nellysford 4 ESE       5.0   630 PM  2/20  Trained Spotter         
   Elma 2 SW              2.0   443 PM  2/20  Trained Spotter         

...Page County...
   Honeyville 1 ESE       3.8  1252 PM  2/20  Trained Spotter         
   Newport 3 NE           3.0   730 PM  2/20  Broadcast Media         

...Prince William County...
   Woolsey 1 SW           4.7  1255 PM  2/20  Trained Spotter         
   Gainesville 2 SSE      3.6   500 PM  2/20  Trained Spotter         
   Manassas               3.4   100 PM  2/20  NWS Employee            

...Rockingham County...
   Criders 1 NE           5.5   730 PM  2/20  Broadcast Media         
   Grottoes               4.0   730 PM  2/20  Broadcast Media         
   Dale Enterprise 1 ES   3.5   130 PM  2/20  Trained Spotter         
   Bridgewater            3.0   730 PM  2/20  Broadcast Media         

...Shenandoah County...
   Mount Clifton 3 N      7.0   730 PM  2/20  Conicville              
   Woodstock  NNW         6.2  1154 AM  2/20  Trained Spotter         

...Stafford County...
   Ramoth 1 W             2.9  1200 PM  2/20  Trained Spotter         
   Glendie 2 SSE          2.8  1150 AM  2/20  Trained Spotter         

...Warren County...
   Karo 1 WSW             4.2  1215 PM  2/20  Trained Spotter         

WEST VIRGINIA

...Berkeley County...
   Johnsontown 1 S        6.3  1230 PM  2/20  Trained Spotter         
   Martinsburg 2 E        6.0   426 PM  2/20  NWS Employee            
   Shepherdstown 4 NNW    5.8   130 PM  2/20  Trained Spotter         
   Vanville 1 SSW         5.5   100 PM  2/20  Trained Spotter         
   Arden 1 S              5.5   630 PM  2/20  Trained Spotter         
   Falling Waters 1 NNW   5.2  1200 PM  2/20  Trained Spotter         
   Bunker Hill  SE        5.2   100 PM  2/20  Trained Spotter         

...Grant County...
   Petersburg             6.0  1231 PM  2/20  Trained Spotter         

...Hampshire County...
   Romney                 6.3  1255 PM  2/20  Trained Spotter         

...Hardy County...
   Lost City              7.0   837 PM  2/20  Broadcast Media         
   Rig  NNW               6.5   130 PM  2/20  Trained Spotter         
   Moorefield 3 N         5.5   730 PM  2/20  0.75 inches of sleet    

...Jefferson County...
   Bloomery 3 SSE         5.9  1200 PM  2/20  Trained Spotter         
   Millville 1 ESE        5.4  1219 PM  2/20  Trained Spotter         
   Shenandoah Junction    4.7  1200 PM  2/20  CoCoRaHS                

...Mineral County...
   New Creek 3 NW         7.7   115 PM  2/20  Trained Spotter         

...Morgan County...
   Smith Crossroads 1 W   8.1   314 PM  2/20  Trained Spotter         

 

 

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Winter Weather Folklore

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February 21st, 2019|Tags: , , , |