The Focus Is Still On A Winter Storm Next Week

The Focus Is Still On A Winter Storm Next Week

Saturday February 16 2019

Today is the anniversary of the second largest February single day snow. The super storm of 2003 dropped 21.8″ of snow on Baltimore on this date. Today, light snow will stay well south. That has the plan for a few days and I hope you have been getting my updates. That storm plus some showers Sunday are part of an entire colder shift with the pattern that includes the larger storm next week. Next Wednesday still looks like the main event, and the colder pattern brings in more snow before changing over to freezing rain. So another potential ice storm for the areas that just had one this past week.

This morning you will notice the cold air has returned. The outlook for the next month has some very cold air dominating the country, and we will be on the edge of this. That means we will continue to fluctuate between warm days and winter weather events. More on that below.

 

 

Local Weather Stats For February 15, 2019 in Baltimore

Average High:  45ºF

Record High: 75ºF in 1954

Average  Low: 27ºF

Record Low:  5ºF in 2015

                         *Record Snow:  21.8″ in 2003 *2nd highest for the month

Sunrise: 6:58 AM

Sunset 5:43 PM 

*Daylight = 2:23 longer than yesterday 

*Bay Water Temperature = 38ºF at Thomas Pt. Light House 

 

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Morning Temperatures

Where is the snow?

As we discussed a few days ago, the system is weaker and staying south. There may be some wintry mix showers in southern Maryland, but most likely in southern Virginia. Do not expect any stickage.

 

 

Afternoon Forecast 

Weekend Max/Min Temperatures —> slider 

 

Sunday Evening Showers?

At this point, it look light. Any mix will be only a few hours and temperatures appear to remain above freezing.

 

Storm Next Week

  • At this time, the storm appears to arrive Wednesday morning. As mentioned, the colder set up brings us snow before the change to freezing rain.
  • Snow should fall for most of our area as it begins, but change to rain quickly for southern MD and east of the Bay to most of Delmarva.
  • I DO NOT give snow totals more than 48 hours ahead of an event. Too much can change, especially with timing the change to ice. So any totals you see now elsewhere are likely to change.
  • The most likely ice storm areas are the places that just had extensive ice and snow this past week. This is west and north of I-95 and the cities. Problems will linger into Wednesday night and Thursday morning.
  • Note: Most ice events tend to last longer than models initially show

 

GFS Model Animation

The bulk of the snow will fall during the day Wednesday, then change to freezing rain west and north of the cities/I-95

 

 

European Model —> slider

 

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Outlooks

NOAA’s Climate Prediction has among the coldest February signatures even shown…

2 week outlook

This shows the core of the cold air in the western US. Our region is on the edge of slightly mild, with summer heat in Florida.

But, we are on the edge and will get some influence from both air masses. Warm days and cold air with some winter weather events.

Early March Outlook

 

 

Ten Day Outlook

Here we can see the bounce between mild and cold temporaries over the next week and a half for Baltimore.

 

 

 

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Related Links:

Winter Outlook

My Winter Outlook 2018-19: Multiple Nor’Easters and more snow

Interactive Snow Report

November 15 Snow Reports- Interactive Map Compared To My Forecast

Winter Snow And Top 5 Wet Years 

Snowfall Seasons at Beginning and End of Top 5 Wet Years In Baltimore

 

Related Winter Outlooks

Tropical Hints At Winter Snow

Solar Cycle: When Sun Spots Are Low We Get More Snow

El Nino Modoki May Enhance Snow Chances

Sweet Spot: Hitting 70ºF on Halloween is followed by more winter snow

Will A Wet Summer Bring A Snowy Winter?

 

Winter Weather Folklore

NOAA Winter 2018-2019 Outlook Explained: This Actually Supports Snow

Winter Outlook From Two Different Farmers Almanacs

Maryland Winters: Snowfall Maps and Baltimore Snow History

 

 

February 16th, 2019|Tags: , , , , |