Some Sunday Night Icing Before Bigger Storm Next Week

Some Sunday Night Icing Before Bigger Storm Next Week

Saturday February 16 2019

The system today is passing to the south with rain and some snow mixed in crossed the very southern edge of Maryland. Meanwhile in the sun, temps are in the upper 30s and lower 40s from Southern PA to metro Baltimore. There is one more system this weekend that will tap into the colder air and spread a little father north.  I want to give you a little breakdown in case you have plans at the end of the weekend. Below you will see this afternoon’s weather map, Sunday night’s weather animation, and an hourly slider of the close up view for icing Sunday night.

Note, this is before the larger storm we expect next Wednesday:

  • When: Sunday Night (between 7 PM and 2 AM Monday)
  • What: Light sleet and freezing rain
  • Where: Typical colder areas west and north of Baltimore into Southern PA
  • Expectation: Minor Icing into Monday morning.

 

Saturday Afternoon Radar

 

Sunday Night Weather Animation: Light Icing North

This event will have colder air at the surface, but warmer air aloft. The net result will be sleet and freezing rain.

Sleet means ice pellets. Freezing rain looks like rain, but freezes on contact with the ground to form ice.

 

Sunday Evening Temperatures

Plotting the freezing line is important for noting where the best chance for icing will occur. If you had moderate icing last week, then it is possible you get some Sunday evening into Monday morning.

 

Sunday Night Radar Simulation —> slider

Sleet (ice pellets) -= orange; Freezing Rain = pink

 

Monday Morning Temperatures

 

 

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Storm Next Week

  • At this time, the storm appears to arrive Wednesday morning. As mentioned, the colder set up brings us snow before the change to freezing rain.
  • Snow should fall for most of our area as it begins, but change to rain quickly for southern MD and east of the Bay to most of Delmarva.
  • I DO NOT give snow totals more than 48 hours ahead of an event. Too much can change, especially with timing the change to ice. So any totals you see now elsewhere are likely to change.
  • The most likely ice storm areas are the places that just had extensive ice and snow this past week. This is west and north of I-95 and the cities. Problems will linger into Wednesday night and Thursday morning.
  • Note: Most ice events tend to last longer than models initially show

 

GFS Model Animation

The bulk of the snow will fall during the day Wednesday, then change to freezing rain west and north of the cities/I-95

 

 

European Model —> slider

 

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Related Links:

Winter Outlook

My Winter Outlook 2018-19: Multiple Nor’Easters and more snow

Interactive Snow Report

November 15 Snow Reports- Interactive Map Compared To My Forecast

Winter Snow And Top 5 Wet Years 

Snowfall Seasons at Beginning and End of Top 5 Wet Years In Baltimore

 

Related Winter Outlooks

Tropical Hints At Winter Snow

Solar Cycle: When Sun Spots Are Low We Get More Snow

El Nino Modoki May Enhance Snow Chances

Sweet Spot: Hitting 70ºF on Halloween is followed by more winter snow

Will A Wet Summer Bring A Snowy Winter?

 

Winter Weather Folklore

NOAA Winter 2018-2019 Outlook Explained: This Actually Supports Snow

Winter Outlook From Two Different Farmers Almanacs

Maryland Winters: Snowfall Maps and Baltimore Snow History

February 16th, 2019|Tags: , , , , |