Saturday Snow Tracks South After Warm Day Limits Stickage

Saturday Snow Tracks South After Warm Day Limits Stickage

February 14 2019

We finally started to turn mild on this Valentines Day afternoon, and a big warm up is expected tomorrow. The snow is still set for this weekend, but all things thing to be factored in. This quick post may help answer some questions about what to expect. This is only about the Saturday event. The over main weather issue will be a large ice storm next week, which I will update in my evening post.

Before The Snow…

Friday will be warm!  Especially in the areas that are expecting snow, the afternoon highs will be in the lower 60s. Some 50s by the water

Friday’s High Temperatures 

 

It would take time to cool the ground, even if we had a major chill, but we will not.

Here is the expected track of the snow on the GFS Model. (compare to local slider for the GFS and European Models below)

 

 

GFS Model —> slider

  • Some snow near Washington in the morning. Maybe light snow or flurries near Baltimore. Little to nothing north of there.
  • If to arrives before 8 AM, there may be some minor impact around metro Washington and Annapolis until 10 AM.
  • It will be colder under the moderate snow, and milder to the north.
  • The area of near freezing will be narrow, and specific to the snow rates.
  • Stickage will be marginal, and more likely on the grass.
  • Most roads likely to be wet due to daytime snowfall. But can get slushy and covered at times.

 

Saturday Afternoon Temperatures

 

 

European Model —> slider

 

Saturday Afternoon Temperatures

 

My Notes:

  • It will be colder under the moderate snow, and milder to the north.
  • The area of near freezing will be narrow, and specific to the snow rates.
  • Stickage will be marginal, and more likely on the grass.
  • Most roads likely to be wet due to daytime snowfall. But can get slushy and covered at times.

 

How Much Snow?

Between 2 and 4 inches may fall in the moderate snow zone. That is well south of Baltimore and Washington. But I expect most will be on the grass.

 

I will have another update this evening.

 

 

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Related Links:

Winter Outlook

My Winter Outlook 2018-19: Multiple Nor’Easters and more snow

Interactive Snow Report

November 15 Snow Reports- Interactive Map Compared To My Forecast

Winter Snow And Top 5 Wet Years 

Snowfall Seasons at Beginning and End of Top 5 Wet Years In Baltimore

 

Related Winter Outlooks

Tropical Hints At Winter Snow

Solar Cycle: When Sun Spots Are Low We Get More Snow

El Nino Modoki May Enhance Snow Chances

Sweet Spot: Hitting 70ºF on Halloween is followed by more winter snow

Will A Wet Summer Bring A Snowy Winter?

 

Winter Weather Folklore

NOAA Winter 2018-2019 Outlook Explained: This Actually Supports Snow

Winter Outlook From Two Different Farmers Almanacs

Maryland Winters: Snowfall Maps and Baltimore Snow History

February 14th, 2019|Tags: , , , , |