Brief Warm Up Then Weekend Southern Snow And Ice Storm Next Week

Brief Warm Up Then Weekend Southern Snow And Ice Storm Next Week

Thursday February 14 2019

Happy Valentines Day. You may love that it is not snowing. You may love that temps could warm to 60 degrees tomorrow. Or, you may love that snow on the way this weekend will reach southern Maryland. But I doubt  many can find the love for a potential ice storm next week.  There is a lot to discuss but here is a quick break down, with maps below.

 

Quick Cast

  • Valentines Day: Some morning ice, warming to the upper 40s
  • Friday: Warming to 50s. Near 60ºF between Baltimore and Washington
  • Saturday: Snow southern Maryland, but during the day many roads will be wet
  • Sunday: Light evening showers
  • Ice Storm: Tuesday Night and Wednesday

Forecast Maps Below

 

Local Weather Stats For February 14, 2019 in Baltimore

Average High:  45ºF

Record High: 70ºF in 1990

Average  Low: 26ºF

Record Low:  -2ºF in 1979

                         *Record Snow:  4.0″ in 1976

Sunrise: 6:59 AM

Sunset 5:41 PM 

*Daylight = 2:21 longer than yesterday 

*Bay Water Temperature = 36ºF at Thomas Pt. Light House 

 

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Buchanan Kia of Westminster is a supporter of Just In Power Kids and Maryland Trek 6 in August 2019.


 

Two Days To Thaw 

Today

Friday

Weekend Snow

This appears to be holding a track through the southern half of Maryland. M<ost paling during the day will likely mean stickage on the grass, but most roads wil be wet.

Euro Model —> slider

 

GFS FV3

This shows snow mostly south of Washington on to Maryland’s lower Eastern Shore.

 

Sunday Evening

This wave appears to be light showers. Not a big deal at this time for us. Steady snow or mix into central and western PA.

 

Ice Storm: Tuesday Night into Wednesday

This is still on track as it looked for a few days. Cold air at the surface but warmer air aloft.

This could be a moderate impact Wednesday morning in metro areas. Might be a major extended ice event inland and up north again.

 

Euro Model —> slider

 

GFS FV3

This model is later and colder. While it shows snow at the onset, it turns to ice for the evening.

 

Notes: I lean in favor of the Euro Model for both events…. Which means the weekend event will be a minor impact. However next week might be worth having a back up plan. The timing can change, but Tuesday night and Wednesday it is important to remember that ice storms often last longer than initially shown on models.

ALL FITF  Apparel 

 

Extended Temperatures

The second half of next week trends back closer to normal (mid to upper 40s).

 

 

 

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Related Links:

Winter Outlook

My Winter Outlook 2018-19: Multiple Nor’Easters and more snow

Interactive Snow Report

November 15 Snow Reports- Interactive Map Compared To My Forecast

Winter Snow And Top 5 Wet Years 

Snowfall Seasons at Beginning and End of Top 5 Wet Years In Baltimore

 

Related Winter Outlooks

Tropical Hints At Winter Snow

Solar Cycle: When Sun Spots Are Low We Get More Snow

El Nino Modoki May Enhance Snow Chances

Sweet Spot: Hitting 70ºF on Halloween is followed by more winter snow

Will A Wet Summer Bring A Snowy Winter?

 

Winter Weather Folklore

NOAA Winter 2018-2019 Outlook Explained: This Actually Supports Snow

Winter Outlook From Two Different Farmers Almanacs

Maryland Winters: Snowfall Maps and Baltimore Snow History

February 14th, 2019|Tags: , , , , |