Winter Weather Advisory Expanded And Some Snow Totals Increased

Winter Weather Advisory Expanded And Some Snow Totals Increased

Monday Evening Update January 28 2019

New information in this post might be good news for some snow lovers. The Winter Weather Advisory has two updates in central Maryland. The timing has been expanded to now begin at 4 AM. This fits with my early forecast for predawn snow an proven in the new HRRR Model simulation slider below. The advisory also now includes Washington County, Maryland. So Hagerstown has joined the party and is now included in this map.

The other update is the National Weather Service snow forecast increased for some areas. I am keeping my original forecast and you can compare them all below. The big winner might be between northern Carroll County into York and Lancaster Counties.

Winter Weather Advisory

 

Zones Explained

1 AM Tue to 1 AM Wed for Southern Pennsylvania:

Adams, York, and Lancaster… This area will stay below freezing for the entire event.

4 AM Tue to 9 PM Tue for Counties:

Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore-Northwest Montgomery-
Northwest Howard-Northwest Harford

This area will have some snow and ice in the morning and more snow total with the afternoon round.

Noon Tue to 10 PM Tue for Counties:

Southern Baltimore-Central and Southeast Montgomery-
Central and Southeast Howard-Southeast Harford-
Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax-Northern Fauquier-
Southern Fauquier-Western Loudoun-Eastern Loudoun-

This area may have some wintry mix in the morning. But should thaw, then turn back to snow noon to 2 PM. Roads will become icy.

3 PM to Midnight Wed for Counties:

District of Columbia-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Charles-
Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Stafford-Spotsylvania-

This area will turn to snow mid afternoon and get stickage on the roads for the afternoon commute. Travel will be icy into the evening.

4 AM to Midnight Wed for Counties:

New Castle-Cecil-Somerset-Mercer-Delaware

This area should stay below freezing for most or all of the event. Some morning snow, then the harder hit will be afternoon and evening.

 

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Snow Simulations

Morning Timeline HRRR –> slider

 

Notice the last image at noon. This model shows more mixing but has trouble identifying the snow.

Compare this to the NAM 3 Km Model… Showing more snow, but also having a hard time pushing it east for a few hours. This may be a signal that Low Pressure along the front is slowing it down. But, it may also be adding moisture.

 

Afternoon and Evening Timeline NAM 3 Km –> slider

 

Flash Freeze: Cold Air To Follow

Midnight Wednesday

 

Wednesday Morning

 

How Much Snow?

NAM 3 Km Snow Forecast

 

NWS Office Snow Forecasts

The Baltimore/Washington Office increased the snow for northern Carroll County. Compare to the Pennsylvania Office just over the line almost half the total.  That can be confusing. I think there is upside potential, but I am keeping my original forecast. Compare that below.

 

Westminster/Northern Carroll County is showing in 4 to 6 inches

But the image below has nearby

Adams and York Counties in PA is showing 2 to 3 inches

 

Cecil County shows a range of 2 to 4 inches. Less south in Kent County/Chestertown.

 

My Original Forecast

 

There will be some morning snow in the mountains. But the developing situation will be over our central are to the Delmarva.

Zone A: 

  • Most likely to have morning impact, stay near or below freezing all day, and have the most snow.
  • Snow Totals: 2 to 4 inches. There is potential for some higher amounts.

Zone B:

  • Marginal risk for morning issue on the roads.
  • Thaw mid day, then change to snow between noon and 4 PM
  • Snow Totals: 2 to 3 inches

Zone C:

  • No morning weather problems
  • Change to snow after 4 PM
  • Wet roads will get stickage and turn icy of the evening
  • Snow Totals: Up to 2 inches

Will We See Record Cold?

Temperature Outlooks

Let’s first take a look at some climate date for Baltimore at BWI for next week:

January 30 (Wed):

42ºF = Normal High;  25ºF = Normal Low

16ºF in 1966 = Record Cold Max Temperature *(likely to be a little higher than this)

-4ºF  in 1873 = Record Min Temperature *(should not reach this level)


January 31 (Thur):

42ºF = Normal High;  25ºF = Normal Low

22ºF in 1948 = Record Cold Max Temperature *(Chance to break this)

+4ºF in 1966 = Record Min Temperature *(Chance to break this)

 


 

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Related Links:

Winter Outlook

My Winter Outlook 2018-19: Multiple Nor’Easters and more snow

Interactive Snow Report

November 15 Snow Reports- Interactive Map Compared To My Forecast

Winter Snow And Top 5 Wet Years 

Snowfall Seasons at Beginning and End of Top 5 Wet Years In Baltimore

 

Related Winter Outlooks

Tropical Hints At Winter Snow

Solar Cycle: When Sun Spots Are Low We Get More Snow

El Nino Modoki May Enhance Snow Chances

Sweet Spot: Hitting 70ºF on Halloween is followed by more winter snow

Will A Wet Summer Bring A Snowy Winter?

 

Winter Weather Folklore

NOAA Winter 2018-2019 Outlook Explained: This Actually Supports Snow

Winter Outlook From Two Different Farmers Almanacs

Maryland Winters: Snowfall Maps and Baltimore Snow History