Polar Bear Plunge Temperatures And Arctic Blast Likely To Arrive With Snow

Polar Bear Plunge Temperatures And Arctic Blast Likely To Arrive With Snow

Saturday January 26 2019

The weather this weekend will be quiet for most of our region, but there will be a lot of extra noise on the Chesapeake Bay for the Polar Bear Plunge. Below is a look at the hourly temperatures for the event today. It’s a cold start, but will be a seasonable afternoon. The big story will be the Polar Vortex across the Northern US and the extreme the reaches us.  It is becoming more obvious that it will arrive with some snow and icy roads. More on that below.

 

Temperature Timeline for MD Polar Bear Plunge

Bay Water Temps measured 38ºF this morning at nearby Thomas Pt Lighthouse

 

Local Weather Stats For January 26, 2019 in Baltimore

Average High:  42ºF

Record High: 79ºF in 1950

Average  Low: 24ºF

Record Low:  2ºF in 1961

                         *Record Snow:  7.6* in 2011

Sunrise: 7:18 AM

Sunset 5:19 PM 

*Daylight = 1:53 longer than yesterday 

*Bay Water Temperature = 38ºF at Thomas Pt. Light House 

 

 


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Morning Set Up

Temperatures

Baltimore at 7 AM

  • Temperature = 19ºF
  • Wind Gusts: Calm

 

Noon

A disturbance is most likely to just provide passing clouds. But there could be a few flurries, especially in the mountains

 

High Temperatures

 

Sunday:

Snow showers over the western mountains bring them a fresh coasting for Sunday morning. This disturbance will move east and fade over the mountains. However there could be some flurries west of the front ridge.

 

 

High Temperatures

 

Skipping Ahead:

The core of the coldest air will pass to our north Tuesday and Wednesday, and drag a cold front our way.

 

Tuesday Evening

Rain showers will chancer to a burst of snow for a few hours. This is the kind of set up that better supports a Flash Freeze than what we had last week. The reason is that there will be a damp ground and snow falling on top as the temps tank.

 

Snow Timeline (European Model) –> slider

Snow totals: It’s too early to confirm,  but this pattern supports a dusting to 2 inches.

 

FV3-GFS

 

Temperatures Tank Tuesday Night

This map shows temperatures relative to ‘normal’. The core of the cold air will be close to 20 degrees below normal in Ohio.

 

 

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Temperature Outlook

 

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FITF and SnowStix 

 

Related Links:

Winter Outlook

My Winter Outlook 2018-19: Multiple Nor’Easters and more snow

Interactive Snow Report

November 15 Snow Reports- Interactive Map Compared To My Forecast

Winter Snow And Top 5 Wet Years 

Snowfall Seasons at Beginning and End of Top 5 Wet Years In Baltimore

 

Related Winter Outlooks

Tropical Hints At Winter Snow

Solar Cycle: When Sun Spots Are Low We Get More Snow

El Nino Modoki May Enhance Snow Chances

Sweet Spot: Hitting 70ºF on Halloween is followed by more winter snow

Will A Wet Summer Bring A Snowy Winter?

 

Winter Weather Folklore

NOAA Winter 2018-2019 Outlook Explained: This Actually Supports Snow

Winter Outlook From Two Different Farmers Almanacs

Maryland Winters: Snowfall Maps and Baltimore Snow History 

 

January 26th, 2019|Tags: , , , , |