Flood Watch For Heavy Rain Into The Weekend

Flood Watch For Heavy Rain Into The Weekend

Thursday December 13 2018

It’s been a while since we had rain. The headline here could be that Baltimore has not had measurable rain in 11 days, since December 2. But that is about change and go figure it would happen on a Friday into the weekend. This brings us back to the old Fall pattern that includes heavy rain. As a result, NWS has issued a Flood Watch for all of central Maryland and into eastern Virginia.

 

 

Added To The Record

The expectation of over 2 inches of rain will increase our already record wet year.

 

Rain Forecast: What To Expect

Rain will expand from south to north Friday afternoon and evening. It may be at its heaviest during the day Saturday. Thanks to an upper level system, this storm will linger into Sunday only to be followed by colder air Monday (which I still think may bring snow showers to parts of our area). The net result could bring between 1 and 3 inches of rain to the area.

Here is a look at two models run expectations.

The European ECMWF has

  • 1.5″ to 2″ range in Baltimore and central Maryland
  • 1.1″ in York PA
  • 1.3″ to 1.6″ across southern Maryland to Ocean City

 

 

The NAM 3 Km Model is much more aggressive:

  • 2.7″+ in  Baltimore and central Maryland
  • 1.4″ in York PA
  • 2″ to 3.1″ Maryland to Ocean City

 

Rain Timeline–> sliders

Here is the NAM break down

Friday:

Arrival mid afternoon making a wet evening

 

Saturday:

  • Moderate to heavy rain at any point in the day.
  • This is the most likely time to have flooding. We could have some claps of thunder.

 

 

Sunday: Showers will linger under the upper low as shown in the animation below.

Storm Animation

FV3 GFS

 

Is This A Hint For Snow?

On the bright side, if you anxious for winter weather… we might have some thunder. The old Weather Folklore saying supports: “If in winter you hear thunder, snow will follow in a week or under”.

 

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Related Links:

Winter Outlook

My Winter Outlook 2018-19: Multiple Nor’Easters and more snow

Interactive Snow Report

November 15 Snow Reports- Interactive Map Compared To My Forecast

Winter Snow And Top 5 Wet Years 

Snowfall Seasons at Beginning and End of Top 5 Wet Years In Baltimore

 

Related Winter Outlooks

Tropical Hints At Winter Snow

Solar Cycle: When Sun Spots Are Low We Get More Snow

El Nino Modoki May Enhance Snow Chances

Sweet Spot: Hitting 70ºF on Halloween is followed by more winter snow

Will A Wet Summer Bring A Snowy Winter?

 

Winter Weather Folklore

NOAA Winter 2018-2019 Outlook Explained: This Actually Supports Snow

Winter Outlook From Two Different Farmers Almanacs

Maryland Winters: Snowfall Maps and Baltimore Snow History 

 

 

 

Snowstix- We Need You To Measure Snow Too

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December 13th, 2018|Tags: , , , , |