Dry Weekend Then Very Cold Thanksgiving The Sharp Warm Up

Dry Weekend Then Very Cold Thanksgiving The Sharp Warm Up

November 17 2018

We are in a cold pattern that may feel like winter as much as it looks. The long range trend does support more long duration cold events and snow in December. But until then we have some holiday week weather that will be a little interesting. This weekend will be dry and eventually erode away the clouds on the north end. One little system of interest after midnight Monday into Tuesday. Then very cold air for Thanksgiving Day.

Extremes breed extremes. So after the record early snow and cold, there will be a big bounce to end the Thanksgiving Weekend. Wait until you see the numbers below.  Here is a quick look.

As always, links to related recent articles and all the snow stuff at the bottom of each post.

 

Local Weather Stats For November 17 in Baltimore

Average High:  56ºF

Record High: 75ºF in 1928

Average  Low: 36ºF

Record Low:  20ºF in 1996

                         *Record Snow: 1″ in 1935

Sunrise: 6:52 AM

Sunset 4:50 PM 

*Daylight = 1:50 shorter than yesterday 

*Bay Water Temperature = 51ºF at Thomas Pt. Light House 

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Morning Snapshot

We are on the edge of clouds under this ‘dirty High’. So even with some sun trying to peak through, it will be filtered with plenty of clouds today.

 

Satellite Loop

The storm in the central US will only send clouds our way today.

 

Morning Temperatures 

Afternoon Highs

 

 

Early Week Question

An Upper Level disturbance will pass through Overnight Monday into Tuesday Morning.

The Euro shows rain, but colder air aloft might allow for some mixing.

 

NWS has indicated these areas with a 25% to 50% chance of something frozen falling and sticking 

 

 

Temperatures

But, temperatures are expected to be above freezing. The only reason it’s worth mentioning s because it will be in the middle of the night

 

Weather Animation

The GFS Model has this ‘thing’ not reaching beyond the mountains… It also shows a DRY THANKSGIVING.

 

 

Temperature Outlook

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Related Links:

Winter Outlook

My Winter Outlook 2018-19: Multiple Nor’Easters and more snow

Interactive Snow Report

November 15 Snow Reports- Interactive Map Compared To My Forecast

Winter Snow And Top 5 Wet Years 

Snowfall Seasons at Beginning and End of Top 5 Wet Years In Baltimore

 

Related Winter Outlooks

Tropical Hints At Winter Snow

Solar Cycle: When Sun Spots Are Low We Get More Snow

El Nino Modoki May Enhance Snow Chances

Sweet Spot: Hitting 70ºF on Halloween is followed by more winter snow

Will A Wet Summer Bring A Snowy Winter?

 

Winter Weather Folklore

NOAA Winter 2018-2019 Outlook Explained: This Actually Supports Snow

Winter Outlook From Two Different Farmers Almanacs

Maryland Winters: Snowfall Maps and Baltimore Snow History 

 

 

 

Snowstix- We Need You To Measure Snow Too

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November 17th, 2018|Tags: , , , , |