Afternoon Storms Filling In What Model Forecast Is Missing

Afternoon Storms Filling In What Model Forecast Is Missing

August 3 2018

While we are under a Flash Flood Watch and a have a marginal risk for storms to turn severe today, the best thing we can do is simply watch Doppler Radar and now-cast.  The high resolution short range models that I often share with you have been missing the mark. The intense rain in AA County yesterday and to the west the day prior were not indicated on the HRRR or NAM 3 Km Models. They are good guidance but not perfect.

Here is the latest look as I spot the error in analysis at 11 AM. The simulation for the evening looks impressive, but I think we need to be away of what may pop up ahead of that during the afternoon.

Risks: Heavy downpours, flash flooding, lighting, damaging winds, doing tree, isolated tornado.

11 AM Doppler Radar Analysis

Notice the heavy rain bands on the upper Eastern Shore of Maryland and much of Delaware. Now compare that to the HRRR Model simulation beginning at 11 AM below…

 

HRRR Model Simulation —> slider

Notes:

While the initialization is lacking the rain to our east, it may also be missing what will be popping up in the next few hours. I would expect more action mid afternoon. But we need to watch Doppler to see where it sets up.  Then the evening round may be the big hit… but that will be determined by how much energy may be used in the storms that the simulation may be missing between noon and 3 PM.

 

 

Radar Animation (2 Hours Loop)

 

 

 

 

 

 

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August 3rd, 2018|Tags: , , , , |