Strong Storm Saturday Starts Flood Risk And Wet Week Pattern

Strong Storm Saturday Starts Flood Risk And Wet Week Pattern

Friday July 20 2018

Enjoy today’s weather as we flip the switch Saturday with a strong storm rolling up the coast. The only debate now is the timing with a 5 hour range, but we should have rain with us from morning through evening. This system will take the track right along the coast, just inland keeping it from turning tropical. But it might feel like it with the gusty winds and heavy rain. Flooding and lightning are possible through the afternoon. If you have heard about the deadly duck boat in Branson MO or the tornado outbreak in Iowa, that was a completely separate weather event. Ours is purely a coastal system and will set the stage for a wet pattern through next week and possibly beyond.

Quick Notes: Today will reach the lower 80s then Saturday will be about 10 degrees cooler thanks to the rain.

At this point I would plan for a washout Saturday, but a brief break Sunday before afternoon storms return. This is not good news for Art Scape in Baltimore or pool parties. Sunday may be a little better,  but we will be in for on and off showers and storms each day next week that can’t be timed out for now.  Below is a look at the Saturday timeline.

Stats For July 20 in Baltimore

Average High:  87ºF

Record High: 102ºF in 1930

Average  Low: 67ºF

Record Low: 57ºF in 2009

Sunrise: 5:56 AM

Sunset 8:28 PM

*Daylight = 1:30 shorter than yesterday 

*Bay Water Temperature = 80ºF at Thomas Pt. Light House

 

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Morning Set Up

Temperatures

High Temperatures Today

High Temperatures Saturday

 

Saturday Storm

The track of the storm should be across Delmarva to the north. This may prevent this from turning tropical, but will spread the heavy rain farther inland. Most of our region will in the thick of it… The only tricky part is the timing. The NAM Model shown here is a little slower than the GFS (seen below). Both have us with rain starting in the morning.

Radar Simulation —> slider

 

Rain Total (Just for Saturday)

Many spots will be in the 1 to 3 inch rain range, with locally heavier downpours… especially on the Delmarva. This will bring in a flooding chance.

 

GFS Model

This model is about 5 hours earlier with the Low Pressure in southern Maryland.

 

Rain Animation

This is a long loop from Saturday through next Friday. It might be tough to track the timing even though I slowed it down. The main point is that the rain chance stays with us each day for the next week.

 

Temperature Outlook

Each day Sunday through next week will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s. That will depend on the amount of rain expected each day.

 

 

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