Severe Storm Risk Today Saturday June 23

Severe Storm Risk Today Saturday June 23

Saturday June 23 2018

We have a slight risk for severe storms to erupt today. The morning is filled with low clouds and fog, but only an isolated shower. Any breaks of sun through the clouds will ignite the atmosphere with storms that can produce winds over 60 mph, large hail over quarter size, dangerous lightning, and a possibility of flooding. The prime focus will begin in the mountains orly afternoon, then shift to the east with metro areas watching storms near Frederick around 4 PM and central Maryland through 9 PM. See the timeline below.

Sunday should see an improvement, so get through today and the rest of the weekend will be salvageable.

 

Stats For June 23 in Baltimore

Note: Summer Begins at 6:07 AM Thursday June 21

Average High:  85ºF

Record High: 97ºF in 2010

Average  Low: 64ºF

Record Low: 48ºF in 1992

Sunrise: 5:40 AM

Sunset 8:36 PM

*Daylight = 0:06 longer than yesterday 

*Bay Water Temperature = 74ºF at Thomas Pt. Light House

 

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Morning Set Up

A stationary front is draped to our south keeping us on the cool side again. This will try to drift north and help spawn multiple showers and storms today. But we need sunlight and heat of the day to ignite the action…

 

Satellite (2 Hour loop ending 8:17 AM)

June 23 clouds satellite loop

 

Temperatures

Foggy areas have low visibly marked with red numbers.

 

Now let’s talk about the rain

Doppler Radar at 8 AM shows this cluster of rain along Skyline Drive and I-81, moving to the north.

 

Radar Simulation –> slider

I started this at 8 AM to show that it is NOT perfect, but it is our best gauge. Here we can see the HRRR Model was showing a weaker cell, which means it may miss some of the smaller showers today.  The timeline below should be considered with a 1 hour cushion for timing. There may be some wiggle room in the location as well. Just wanted to get you an idea:

One round of shows might arrive west of Baltimore around noon… this will be moving to the north.

The cluster near Hagerstown and Frederick around 4 PM, then reaching metro Baltimore between 6 PM and 10 PM. This will be moving to the east.

 

High Temperatures

 

Temperature Outlook

Want summer heat? It looks like we should get into that pattern by next weekend.

 

Please share your thoughts, best weather pics/video, or just keep in touch via social media

 

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June 23rd, 2018|Tags: , , , , |