High Wind Warning And Advisory Severe Storms And Snow Saturday

High Wind Warning And Advisory Severe Storms And Snow Saturday

A Wind Advisory is in place for most of our are today, but this was upgraded to a High Wind Warning in Pennsylvania where gusts could reach 60 mph. We have a very volatile set up today with rapidly changing conditions. A Dense Fog Advisory this morning as cool damp air and low visibility are being squeezed out by a strong cold front. Winds will surge this morning and try to push the 60s farther north. The line of rain and developing storms could turn severe on the Lower Eastern Shore.

Then colder air will follow this evening when we could feel the strongest winds between 4 and 8 PM. The odd thing is that if you heard we may get snow on Saturday, we will actually warm back to the 60s Friday, then the bottom falls out this weekend. Not only will we have snow, but record low temperature possible as we dip into the 20s Sunday morning.

 

 

Stats For April 4

Average High:  61ºF

Record High: 86ºF in 2011

Average  Low: 39ºF

Record Low: 20ºF in 1965

Snow Record: 1.5″ in 1944

Seasonal Snow To Date (at BWI): 15.2

Sunrise: 6:46 AM

Sunset 7:33 PM

*Daylight = 2:33 longer than yesterday 

*Bay Water Temperature = 46ºF at Thomas Pt. Light House

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Morning Temperatures

 

 

Rain Timeline: Radar Simulation —> slider

 

Wind Gusts Timeline —> slider

 

Skipping Ahead To The Weekend

This GFS Model has been most aggressive with the snow all day Saturday. I hesitate to give snow potential totals as daytime snow is not likely to stick much… but the duration and intensity in the afternoon/evening is when we may consider snow laying and staying. 

 

Snow Simulation: ICON MODEL

This German forecast model has trended colder. I am showing this because it was this model that did the best job with our last snow event keeping the snow north of Baltimore. This time it spreads to across the Bay… and earlier than the prior run. I would plan for possible impact during the afternoon and evening.

 

Record Cold Sunday?

The record Low on April 8 in Baltimore is 26ºF set in 1982.  That is the forecast shown here on the GFS Model

 

Temperature Outlook 

 

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Also See:

My Winter Outlook 2017-2018 for more snow

Maryland Winters

La Nina Formed: What it could mean to our winter

NOAA Winter Outlook: Not The Best But Not The Worst For Snow

Two Farmers Almanacs Winter 2018 Outlooks

Winter Weather Folkore: Suggestions from Animals and Crops

First Frost and Freeze Dates For Maryland (southern PA and northern VA)

My Preliminary Winter Outlook Notes

Low Snow Winters In Baltimore: To Repeat Or Not Repeat

NOAA Ranks Blizzard 2016 4th Worst Snowstorm On Record

Blizzard 2016 Record Top Snowstorm: Area Totals

Extreme Weather of 2015 balanced out on both ends