My First Call For Snowfall With Potential For Record March Storm

My First Call For Snowfall With Potential For Record March Storm

March 12 – With a Winter Storm Watch in place, the storm on the way is has been consistently plotted by many computer models for many days. Today was the initial snow plan, but that storm was successfully plotted to the south four days ago, and now we watch the next event to develop and rival the top three March snowstorms for Baltimore. The arctic air has sufficiently cooled down the ground, and the storm’s arrival on Monday night will allow for plenty of stickage. My main hesitation is the specific track and freezing line that will set up between the Chesapeake Bay and I-95, so lots of wiggle room for central Maryland including Baltimore and Annapolis. The heaviest snow and biggest impact will be Tuesday morning, so business and school plans will be affected.

Storm Simulation And Snowcast Maps Below

Notes:

  • 8 PM Monday to Midnight—> Snow arrives from the south.
  • Tuesday Morning: Heaviest Snow- Freezing/Rain gets closest. 
  • Tuesday Afternoon:  Main storm pulls away, but snow showers continue
  • Wednesday Morning:  Snow showers linger and temperatures will be below freezing. 
  • Canadian and European Model give the heaviest snow. If these verify, it would be the heaviest snowstorm in March history. The GFS model shows a closer track and more mixing in central Maryland. Still a respectable snowfall in any month for any year.
  • I need to consider the warmer than average Chesapeake Bay to influence the snowfall. 
  • Snow can fall while temps are above freezing in some areas.
  • Heavy, wet snow will compact and weigh down final totals. So ratios may be lower than 10:1 snow to liquid.

Also See:

March Snowstorm History In Baltimore

 

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Storm Simulation —> slider GFS Model

 

Precipitation Potential

Equivalent to all rain and melted snow: Between 1 and 2 inches could bring well over 1 foot in places that stay all snow AND below freezing for the entire event. 

My First Call For Snowfall

Close view

 

Wider View

 

Computer Model Snow Potential Maps  (much higher than my call)

 

 

Winter Storm Watch

Expect and Upgrade To A Warning For Many Areas Later Today

Some c0unties not listed here may get some form of an advisory issues later today

 

 

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March 12th, 2017|Tags: , , , , , |