Setting Up For Real Snow Next Week

Setting Up For Real Snow Next Week

Friday March 10 – The snow event this morning seems to have behaved as expected. That being the timing, duration, and the extent of snow. Basically,  the track pushed the snow where it was suppose to go and that was a critical part of what I look for to see how the models are handling our new pattern… A real winter pattern dominated by the northern branch of the jet stream. We still need to get snow reports and compare to my map, but now I have more confidence looking forward. This includes the hard freeze this weekend and coastal storm next week. Yes, that is still ‘on’. So if you thought today was a tease, we have more on the way. At this point, anything would be more, right? But please read carefully as I have points I want to make.

I want to thank Mother Seton School for hosting a great assembly this morning, and I have a meeting this afternoon about my spring severe storm assembly program. So this will be brief… I will elaborate  more later

Weekend Freeze

The snow may have melted but a hard freeze is moving in tonight. Lows Saturday morning will be in the mid teens to low 20s. This may be an early crop and blossom killer. It will also take a lot of heat out of the ground.

 

Saturday Afternoon will stay below freezing inland, but make it back to the mid 30s for some, but feel colder…. only to set up another hard freeze Sunday morning. Keep these numbers in mind. the Chesapeake Bay water is mild and could also play an warming effect on the next storm.

Race Weather:

If you are running in the Shamrock 5K in Baltimore or going to the parade on Sunday… Maybe I’ll see you. I will be bundled up though. Temps will stay in the 30s and I expect more will bag the race for a jog rather than PR. Cold stays longer and cools down the ground.

 

Coastal Storm- FITF:

As of now, I have more trust that the storm will form and bring the best chance of snow all winter. This will be  a system that doesn’t exist yet and will be the result of some phasing of the northern and southern branches of the jet stream. This is the best chance to show off your FITF gear again with reason.

Timing:

Monday Night to Tuesday Night, maybe snow showers into Wednesday.

Stickage:

Getting the snow to lay and stay will be easier not week after the weekend freeze and cold afternoons. The ground will be much colder and the arrival of snow overnight will help set up the base layer for the flakes friends to join in.

Model Maps

The GFS is showing something I don’t like as a snow lover, but I am glad to point out now. Notice the heavy snow show a mix near the Bay. wind direction as well as storm location will determine any warm air mixing in and change from snow to ‘other stuff’. This is a stronger system, and the European Model is even strong.  But, the Canadian Model deserves it’s mention. This model was the first to show the Sunday storm this weekend miss us and develop the Tuesday storm. This model is best in cold patterns. While I respect it in winter… this is showing a coastal singular event that may not be as large and pull away sooner. I need to show this for contrast and refer to for future posts to see which has a better handle.

 

GFS Model —> slider 

May introduce a mix around I-95/Bay Tuesday morning? This shows phasing of two systems, which will be the stronger solution and linger the snow longer…

Canadian GEM Model —> slider 

Colder, but set up for single storm off of the coast… that could slide off shore sooner.

How Much Snow

I DO NOT believe in showing any model snowcaps now, let along giving amounts. As some of you may have noticed, some models have already scaled back. There are too many variables and once a large number is given, the public perception is to lock on that. It can’t be taken back without looking like the whole thing is wrong.  So… Please wait for my first call by Saturday night or Sunday morning.

 

 

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In a few weeks my friend Lexi Hack and I  will be bringing back these shirts and the fundraiser for Save a Limb Fund at Sinai Hospital. Also stay tuned for my new Storm Smart Assembly program. A STEM based assembly on severe weather for elementary and middle schools.

March 10th, 2017|Tags: , , , , , |