Warm Rain Then Windy And Winter Makes A Return

Warm Rain Then Windy And Winter Makes A Return

Tuesday March 7 – As I was gathering information and making my forecast this morning, one thought jumped into my mind. When my boys wake up the often ask me if they wil have recess outside. But considering the mention of snow already, I know many want to just know about the impact for races and other plans with the potential for a storm this weekend. So much to say, and dare I quote Dave Matthews… “Don’t talk about it. Talk about the weather”. That’s the plan…

Today wil be part of a three day stretch back into the 60s. There is rain this morning, and the next band this by evening. A moderate cold front will arrive after midnight, then we get another surge of strong winds increasing Wednesday afternoon and night. This is when the cold air is set to move in. We have a little system that wil bring us snow Friday, but the freezing line may stay near the PA line in the morning and shift north. So stickage will be limited. The storm on Sunday… That needs a little more explanation below. Here are the maps:

Rain Today: Simulated Radar —> slider HRRR Model

 

Cold Front After Midnight

 

Winds Increase Wednesday Afternoon and Evening

 

Light Snow Friday? Watch the freezing line

—> slider GFS Model

I expect snow in the morning, but the ground is warm and the freezing line appears to briefly slip into northern Maryland. At this point, I would expect metro Baltimore roads to stay wet.

Weekend Storm?

This needs a little explanation. The European Model, which has the best long range track record and first to see this event… has shifted south. The GFS Model here is more consistent, but bumped a little south as well.  If we consider the trend all winter for events to verify farther north… then we can expect the bump back in projections over the next few days.

*I think the model is overdoing the cold air. We had a southern snow track on January 7-8 the brought a foot of snow to the beaches. That was January. This is March and we are missing snowpack to the north AND little to no blocking for now. Also, the energy for this storm is still over the Pacific. Models tend to have an ambiguous period when shifting from long to short range and waiting for the energy to enter the grid.  So the next two days may appear to fluctuate a lot before locking back on the storm.

—> slider GFS Model

 

Canadian Model: Very Different.

I have often pointed this to computer model with confidence in the winter. But that is in a cold pattern. This year has not been and shown the error in these solutions. I still want to contrast how it depicts the next events…. Very differently.

Weekend Storm- Much farther south with the northern edge of snow in North Carolina and the surface Low near the Gulf coast.

 

Coastal Storm Next Week?

This seems to be saving the energy for another system off of the coast Tuesday… but a lack of cold air. It shows snow but temps in the upper 30s in central Maryland. That would mean (if it were true) a wet snow form colder clouds, but melting on warmer ground.

Temperature Outlook

At least this model output has caught on to the cold air for the weekend. I would focus more on the morning lows than the afternoon highs this weekend.

 

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March 7th, 2017|Tags: , , , , |