Rain And 60s To Possible Snow Storm: March Tease Or Truth?

Rain And 60s To Possible Snow Storm: March Tease Or Truth?

Monday March 6 – We just came off of the coldest period we have seen in a month dropping into the teens Sunday morning. We have also gone an entire calendar year without 1 inch of snow, from March 3-4 2016 when 2.5″ fell on BWI. That was not a record, but felt like it. In this winter without much winter, it may be hard to believe that there is potential for a snow storm in March, but then again it might just fit the unusual pattern. Before I get started and get to the maps below, I have a few things I want to share. Today we have a warm front that is producing some flurries. Then we have a warm storm that will bring rain Tuesday into Wednesday morning, along with temps in the 60s.  Then it gets colder with a few chances of snow. I have been reluctant to bite in this information and share until there was more support. We have that now.

There has been a poor track record this winter with models projecting a storm about a week away, then losing it. Either the storms have verified farther north, meaning a warmer set up and rain for us… Or the ingredients have not come together. The difference now is that there seems to be more support now that we are under a week timeframe.  So this will be something we chat about all week. Maps are below, but here is some trivia…

Snow in March?

Snow in March is more common than you might imagine. While Baltimore averages 1.9 inches of snow this month, some big storms are recored as well. In fact, it often comes with one extreme or another. The month of March has produced quite a few large storms. If fact one of the top storms was at the very end of the month. Here is a list of some of the events you might remember or hear others talk about:

#FITF

Top 6 Baltimore Snowstorms in March

  1. 22.0″ March 28-29 in 1942
  2. 12.0″ March 18 in 1892
  3. 11.3″ March 13 1993
  4. 10.5″ March 2-4 in 1960
  5. 10.0″ March 6 in 1962
  6. 10.0″ March 7 in 1941

Recent Baltimore Snowstorms in March

  • 4.7″ March 2 in 2009
  • 6.2″ March 5 in 2015
  • 3.2″ March 25 in 2013 *Only 8 inches total that entire winter 

 

Rain First GFS Model —> slider

Here is the first storm that will warm us up and bring Rain Tuesday and Wednesday

 

Chance of Snow Part 1: Friday

This is important to watch… because any adjustment in track could lead us to hints at the larger event to follow.

 

Will There Be A Snowstorm Next Weekend?

The GFS Model just came on to support the European Model that has been showing this for a few days.  The Canadian Model is lagging behind with a weaker event, but pushed farther south. That is actually a good thing to support the history of north shifting events… to come in line and possibly support the others.

I will NOT give potential snow amounts until within 72-48 hours ahead of the storm.

GFS Model —> slider

Note: Daylight Saving Time is 2 AM Sunday March 12

 

European Model

This shows the surface Low track and the cold jet stream with some blocking to the north infusing colder air. Note that any other maps from this model actually violate their copywrite. I respect that, and if you see it somewhere else is should be from a paid service or with written permission to show on a public forum.

 

Canadian GEM Model

This shows a weaker storm, father south…. but allows for the error shift to the north to support the others.

 

Jet Stream: Trending Colder —> slider

 

Temperature Outlook

The mild temps next weekend don’t show that that modeling has caught on to the storm idea yet.

 

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In a few weeks my friend Lexi Hack and I  will be bringing back these shirts and the fundraiser for Save a Limb Fund at Sinai Hospital. Also stay tuned for my new Storm Smart Assembly program. A STEM based assembly on severe weather for elementary and middle schools.

 

 

March 6th, 2017|Tags: , , , , |