Pattern Change And A Few Chances For March Snow

Pattern Change And A Few Chances For March Snow

Monday March 6 – The cat is out of the bag, and the pattern appears to want to make up for lost time.  Pattern being cold air after a record warm February and lost time being the lack of snow events for the Mid Atlantic. Please read these first few paragraphs before jumping to the maps below for two potential winter events. I think it is important to understand my logic in sharing with caution and not hop on the impulse of a promise. I had an assembly at Taneytown ES in Carroll County this morning. That is in a normally colder spot northwest of Baltimore. But as I was touching on the possible snow this weekend and the rest of our FITF program, I realized the same things I mention to kids and teachers should be repeated here.

I love snow. There is no doubt about it and no news director I had ever worked for was ever able to get to me hide that. We all should love some part of our jobs, right? But in an era of questionable online reports and hype for the proverbial ‘click-bate’, I need to explain that I have my own checks and balances. I will not hide behind a keyboard and always step up if I am wrong. I also feel the need to share and explain potential weather events.  Most importability, I have to answer to my own kids and my clients (contractors and school administrators). Also, kids, their parents, and teachers. Yes, I want their #FITF gear to be justified, but I also am careful not to cry wolf.

Finally, I am signed up to run in the Shamrock 5K this weekend. I don’t want to run in the slop. I also don’t want this to be cancelled. So despite my snow preference, this is not something I am personally encouraging.

With this in mind, I tread with caution. We have had a poor winter for both storms and computer model performance. In prior years, I could lock in on a pattern and often show the Canadian Model leading the way in cold times. This year the most robust European Model has produced storms a week away only to have it not materialize or track farther north.

Also see: Brief Baltimore March Snow History

Jet Stream – Cold Pattern Sets In – Finally

—> slider

First Chance Of Snow —> slider GFS Model

Potential NOT a Promise

Note: The freezing line and timeline.  Snow looks like it will fall with the freezing line north of Baltimore. Also, if this holds during the day, stickage will be a challenge. The ground is warm and the sun angle is high.

I DO NOT give or share snowfall amounts more than 3 days before a storm. Even then, there are a lot of factors that can determine what will fall and what can lay and stay (stickage).


Second Chance For Larger Snowstorm —> slider GFS Model

This is a strong and colder storm. This is based on some blocking to the north allowing the track to stay south and cold air locked in for central Maryland. This is very close to the solution from the widely respected European Model. That had the storm for a few days, and I waited until today to show it.  But, I expect this track to adjust over the next few days as models tend to do in this time frame… waiting for the energy from the Pacific to get fully into the grid.


Comparison To The Canadian

Friday- Looks like agreement on snow and freezing line


Sunday Storm?

This looks much weaker and farther south.


Next Week?

The GFS Shows another storm storm with the track shifting west. If we get the snow, I can imagine the pattern next week will have trouble retrograding as colder air will be in place and the northern latitude results may support more blocking. So each event is limited to the results of the prior event.


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In a few weeks my friend Lexi Hack and I  will be bringing back these shirts and the fundraiser for Save a Limb Fund at Sinai Hospital. Also stay tuned for my new Storm Smart Assembly program. A STEM based assembly on severe weather for elementary and middle schools.

March 6th, 2017|Tags: , , , , , , |