Severe Thunderstorm Watch: Latest Timeline And Expectation

Severe Thunderstorm Watch: Latest Timeline And Expectation

1:05 PM Wednesday March 1 – We are under a Severe Thunderstorm Watch Until 5 PM. This means that storms will have the potential to reach limits that can produce winds over 58 mph, large hail over 1 inch in diameter, and an isolated tornado. The time frame is likely to be shaved off and cancelled since the quick moving line of storms passes through, For central Maryland and southern PA. that will be between 2 3 PM, then 4PM on the Eastern shore. Basically, shortly after I complete this post.

Below I am posting the latest radar to compare to the HRRR Model radar simulation slider. It is NIOT perfect, but a guide…and we can see expect a slight buffer to the time frame. Also, I’ve included a few other parameters. The wind direction is key to severe weather potential between the mountains and I-95 in Maryland. As I pointed out this past weekend and many times before, a southeast wind will maximize the storm potential, feeding winds in off of the Bay. Usually a SW wind flow like we have had today, will allow the storms to weaken a little along I-70, but remain strong near and north of the PA line.  However, there is a hint of the southeast flow at the southern Chesapeake Bay. Should this draw farther north, it might help the activity between Kent Island and Baltimore.

See more about the Enhanced Risk of Storms today

 

CAPE: Convective Available Potential Energy

There are some other elements that the short range models show could lead to peak activity along Carroll, Baltimore Counties and the northern Eastern Shore. The range of 1500 J/Kg or higher appears to pulse, but peak in Kent and Queens Annes County MD ahead of the storm. So if we can track a strong cell from Carroll to Baltimore as the simulation shows below, this may impact the Delmarva as well.

Winds will remain strong behind the line and might be an issue on the bridges for the commute home.

Radar SnapShot as of Post Time

Compare to the first image of the simulation below and see the projection is close, but allow for a 15 to 30 minute buffer.

Radar Simulation —> slider HRRR Model

Peak activity will be 2 to 4 PM. Baltimore gets it around 3 PM

Click here to see: Live Interactive Radar

It is important to note that not all storms will turn severe. The slight and enhanced risk plots are based on the potential any individual storm will turn severe. Please keep this in mind during the day as well…

Note: Should there be any severe storms, sleep these terms in mind

Severe Thunderstorm: Storms with wind gusts over 58 mph an or large hail over 1 inch in diameter.

Watch: Potential for a region. Usually a 6 hour window

Warning: Tracking actual severe storms. This usually last 30 to 45 minutes and issued per county.

The most likely element will be Damaging Winds over 58 mph

Winds

The line is not the cold front… and winds will remain high with the risk of more showers.. but the most intense winds will be along the storm line and peak for  10 to 20 minutes

 

 

 

 

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March 1st, 2017|Tags: , , , , , , |