Enhanced Risk For Severe Storms Then Snow Showers

Enhanced Risk For Severe Storms Then Snow Showers

March 1 – March is coming in like a lion for sure. A band of rain this morning may clip Baltimore and will reach the northern areas of Maryland and into PA. Then the surge of temps back to the 70s and a strong line of storms are likely to turn severe. The NOAA Storm Prediction Center has pushed the Enhanced Risk of Severe Storms farther east to include Westminster and York. This is a better likelihood of storms that could include winds gusting over 58 mph, large hail over 1 inch in diameter, and an isolated tornado is possible. Much of the rest of our area is in the slight risk for severe storms. Below is a timeline on the radar simulation that shows the peak activity will be between 1 and 3 PM.

Please keep scrolling below for much more info on the storms and shift on Friday to light snow.

Simulated Radar —> slider HRRR Model

The most active storms will be between 1 and 3 PM. A chance of rain will linger through the evening.

Severe Storm Breakdown

It is important to note that not all storms will turn severe. The slight and enhanced risk plots are based on the potential any individual storm will turn severe. Please keep this in mind during the day as well…

Note: Should there be any severe storms, sleep these terms in mind

Severe Thunderstorm: Storms with wind gusts over 58 mph an or large hail over 1 inch in diameter.

Watch: Potential for a region. Usually a 6 hour window

Warning: Tracking actual severe storms. This usually last 30 to 45 minutes and issued per county.

The most likely element will be Damaging Winds over 58 mph

 

Large Hail over 1 inch diameter

 

While there is a mention of an isolated tornado, the threat is 2% in any individual storm reaching those parameters

 

Severe Storms Well Ahead Of Cold Front that should arrive tonight.

 

Larger View Of Storm

GFS Model —> slider

 

Clipper Type System: Light Snow Friday

—> slider GFS Model

Note: There is little chance for road stickage due to the warm ground and light snow. But some flakes may lay and stay on the grass

 

Temperature Outlook

The coldest air will be Saturday, then another warm up next week.  I think the month of March will fluctuate like this a lot

 

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March 1st, 2017|Tags: , , , , , |