Severe Storm Risk And Snow Showers To Start March

Severe Storm Risk And Snow Showers To Start March

February 28 – Baltimore is starting today tied for the 2nd warmest February on record. Considering the warm up ahead of our next storm, this will likely take the number 2 spot itself. But bear of March. It will come in like a roaring lion with a risk of severe storms right after the round we had over the weekend. Before the energy reaches us, today will bring in warmer air and rain this evening. BWI is down 1.59″ for the month, so rain is a good thing.  The radar simulation will help you plan for the timeline later today. More will fall along with storms on Wednesday, and then the push of colder air will try to validate the folklore with snow showers on Friday. Stickage will be tough, but we should see the flakes flying. FITF

Warm Day

Wet By Evening

Radar Simulation —> slider HRRR Model

Wednesday Severe Storm Risk

NOAA Storm Prediction Center still has us in the Slight Risk category for severe storms Wednesday. The Moderate Risk  band is creeping closer to western Maryland.

As I had mentioned on Saturday and many time over the years… the odds of severe weather east of the mountains will be determined by the wind direction. Look for a southeast wind the feed moisture and upslope east of the Bay. If that is the case, we could see a repeat of the activity  (not the exact locations) from the weekend.

 

Mid Level Winds

The winds will be flowing 50 to 65 mph at 5,000Ft aloft. That can be brought down to the surface in strong storms and justify severe storm criteria Wednesday afternoon and evening. 

Temperature Outlook

 

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February 28th, 2017|Tags: , , , , |