Updated Timeline For Potential Storms And Severe Risk

Updated Timeline For Potential Storms And Severe Risk

Noon Saturday February 25 – We have a slight risk for severe storms this afternoon as a strong cold front passes through our region.  At noon, the conditions do support storms with temps surging into the upper 60s and near 70°F. One element I look for is the wind direction from the southeast off of the Chesapeake Bay to provide moisture and upslope to feed into anything arriving from the west. Otherwise systems tend to dry out across the mountains. Well, the wind is from the southeast, holding temps down near the water, but still conducive to maximize the potential of the storm line arriving.

As of noon, the regional radar is not very impressive. I show this because the short term High Resolution Rapid Refresh Model looks a lot more impressive, but is wrong at the onset. Still, I think the timeline is still within an hour what what will develop.

Timeline

Simulated Radar —> slider HRRR Model

Best time frame for Metro Baltimore and York will be between 1 and 4 PM today for the action to develop.

NOAA: Severe Storm Risk

Note: Should there nbc any severe storms, sleep these terms in mind

Severe Thunderstorm: Storms with wind gusts over 58 mph an or large hail over 1 inch in diameter.

Watch: Potential for a region. Usually a 6 hour window

Warning: Tracking actual severe storms. This usually last 30 to 45 minutes and issued per county.

 

 

 

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February 25th, 2017|Tags: , , , |