Noon Saturday February 25 – We have a slight risk for severe storms this afternoon as a strong cold front passes through our region. At noon, the conditions do support storms with temps surging into the upper 60s and near 70°F. One element I look for is the wind direction from the southeast off of the Chesapeake Bay to provide moisture and upslope to feed into anything arriving from the west. Otherwise systems tend to dry out across the mountains. Well, the wind is from the southeast, holding temps down near the water, but still conducive to maximize the potential of the storm line arriving.
As of noon, the regional radar is not very impressive. I show this because the short term High Resolution Rapid Refresh Model looks a lot more impressive, but is wrong at the onset. Still, I think the timeline is still within an hour what what will develop.
Simulated Radar —> slider HRRR Model
Best time frame for Metro Baltimore and York will be between 1 and 4 PM today for the action to develop.