Wintert Storm Warning Upgrade: Storm Trending Colder

Wintert Storm Warning Upgrade: Storm Trending Colder

February 8 – This morning has temperatures still holding in the lower 60s for Baltimore. It is hard to imagine that in less that 24 hours we will have a raging snow storm, but it is looking more likely. In fact the most consistent computer model has trended a little colder, which means a better chance for stickage and accumulation closer to Baltimore for the Thursday morning commute. Farther north, where it will be cold enough to maximum impact, southern Pennsylvania counties have been upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning. This just means we are more confident that there will be more than 4 inches of snow in these areas. York and Lancaster are included, which is in my call for 3 to 6+ inches. This Warning has also been upgraded from the NWS office in Mount Holly, NJ the covers Cecil County in Maryland.

The Winter Storm Watch, and even lack of advisories in north/central Maryland are a result of the National Weather Service Office in Sterling VA. They have not made any adjustments yet, but I expect they will during the day today.Yes, I see an impact for Baltimore and possibly Washington.

 

Cyclogenesis: Tracking The Rapidly Developing Storm

  • This will start as rain this evening and not look like much on the weather maps.  But as I mentioned in my prior posts, the storm will be developing rapidly on the southern edge of the jet stream. This is called cyclogenesis.
  • The storm will pulse just as it passes to our south, allowing moderate to heavy rain to change over to heavy snow.
  • The heavy snow will fall before the air temperatures drop below freezing.
  • Snow rates could reach 1 inch or more per hour. That will cool the ground down quickly and allow for stickage.
  • Roads will get less than the grass, but should have an impact on travel during the Thursday morning commute.

—-> slider GFS Model

 

SnapShot: Trending Colder

This 7 AM plot of the GFS Model highlights the freezing line. This is a little farther south than previous runs, meaning the colder air will be wining and more snow can be expected.

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Snow Problems: Stickage And Icing

The freezing line temperatures are expected to reach through Baltimore Thursday morning. Along with heavy snow, I-95 could have accumulation at his time.

 

Below Freezing At Night

Look at the temps deep into the lower teens and 20s Thursday night. There will light snow/snow showers in the evening, so salting and maybe some light additional accumulation could require road crews to throw more salt or even push snow.

 

Snow Forecast

This is my First Call For Snowfall map I showed last night. Compare to the  NWS Updated Maps

 

NWS Forecast Maps: 3 Regional Office Maps

 

 

 

Faith in the Flakes Online- Flannel PJs Printed Inside Out

Store Now Open

  • We’ve added Flannel PJ Pants that will be printed inside out. They have to be, to make it snow ?
  • Free Personal Delivery for orders of 20 items or more to schools and businesses.
  • Click this image for the online store.
  • Look for more items to be added soon.
  • Also see the info for the STEM Assembly Spirit Wear program:  Put your school name on the shirts and raise money for you PTO/PTA in the process.

 

Temperature Outlook

There will be a quick warm up over the weekend and then a trend back to a colder pattern next week.

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Also See:

My Winter Outlook for 2016-2017: Colder with snow spread out more

Maryland Winters

NOAA Winter Outlook for 2016 to 2017

La Nina Formed: What it could mean to our winter

Farmers Almanacs Split On Cold And Snow

Extreme Weather of 2015 balanced out on both ends

Low Snow Winters In Baltimore: Records Might Surprise You

NOAA Ranks Blizzard 2016 4th Worst Snowstorm On Record

Blizzard 2016 Record Top Snowstorm: Area Totals