Monday February 6 – Baltimore hit a high temperature of 61°F today. This is not a record, but way above average. Not our typical February day, and Tuesday will be warmer. One their I have operated on for years is that extremes breed extremes. The pendulum swings both way, so big warm ups are often balanced by a big chill or something in between when normalcy tries to return. So here we have the rain event tomorrow. No change here, and when it passes by, the boundary I showed in the jet stream is still left behind. That will allow a storm to develop on the base of the trough in the jet stream. The GFS and European Models are in agreement with this intensifying as the Low passes to our south on Thursday morning. FITF
Before showing the maps, I need to add some disclaimers:
The ground is warm
The temperatures will be dropping, but some snow will fall with the air above freezing. It will be colder clouds that produce the flakes.
These two limit stickage. However the timing of the snow falling at night, with moderate rates could counter the ground temps and help accumulation. Either way, I would caution anyone making a guess at now amounts this early. There are too many elements that are borderline and can change.