Winter Weather Advisory: Clipper Snow Into Monday Morning

Winter Weather Advisory: Clipper Snow Into Monday Morning

Sunday January 29 – A quick moving system will arrive tonight and bring a round of snow for our region. This is a clipper type Low Pressure, that will be diving south and rounding the base of the trough in the jet stream will allow a little strengthening just as the cold air arrives. The short version: it will snow overnight. But there is a little more to elaborate on.  For starters, the National Weather Service has issued a Winter Weather Advisory along the coast to include Maryland’s Eastern shore.

At this time there is ‘no advisory’ for metro Baltimore or Washington. However I think we should not let our guard down. One thing I have pointed out a few times this winter is that systems are likely to verify farther north than forecast. The would take the band of moderate snow and bring it closer to central Maryland. At this time, I am expecting:

  • Dusting to 2 inches of snow.  There will be some bands of 3 inches or slightly more
  • Midnight to 6 AM, lasting a little later on Delmarva
  • Temperatures will drop below freezing Monday morning allowing for some road stickage

The timing an drop in temperatures support some impact on the Monday morning commute and school travel.

Here is a snapshot from the GFS Model. I highlighted the track showing the forecast path. Below is the WRF/NAM slider for comparison. The GFS shows the Low passing through Salisbury while the WRF has it through Easton and Dover.  If there is any shift north, then the band of moderate snow that will pulse around the Low, could come closer.

 

—> slider Clipper Close Up: WRF/NAM Model

when you click to 1 and 4 AM time stamps, compare to the 1 AM map above for the location of the Low.

Temperature and Stickage

The temperature will cool down overnight. There could be rain or a mix at the start, with temps near or above freezing in central Maryland. But below freezing inland.. Then cooling down overnight. So pre-treatment will keep roads wet but there should be stickage with some pulsing of the snow intensity

 

 

I will how more about the pulse of moderate snow and how much we can expect in my next report later this afternoon.

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Also See:

My Winter Outlook for 2016-2017: Colder with snow spread out more

Maryland Winters

NOAA Winter Outlook for 2016 to 2017

La Nina Formed: What it could mean to our winter

Farmers Almanacs Split On Cold And Snow

Extreme Weather of 2015 balanced out on both ends

Low Snow Winters In Baltimore: Records Might Surprise You

NOAA Ranks Blizzard 2016 4th Worst Snowstorm On Record

Blizzard 2016 Record Top Snowstorm: Area Totals

January 29th, 2017|Tags: , , , , , |