Sunday January 29 – A quick moving system will arrive tonight and bring a round of snow for our region. This is a clipper type Low Pressure, that will be diving south and rounding the base of the trough in the jet stream will allow a little strengthening just as the cold air arrives. The short version: it will snow overnight. But there is a little more to elaborate on. For starters, the National Weather Service has issued a Winter Weather Advisory along the coast to include Maryland’s Eastern shore.
At this time there is ‘no advisory’ for metro Baltimore or Washington. However I think we should not let our guard down. One thing I have pointed out a few times this winter is that systems are likely to verify farther north than forecast. The would take the band of moderate snow and bring it closer to central Maryland. At this time, I am expecting:
- Dusting to 2 inches of snow. There will be some bands of 3 inches or slightly more
- Midnight to 6 AM, lasting a little later on Delmarva
- Temperatures will drop below freezing Monday morning allowing for some road stickage
The timing an drop in temperatures support some impact on the Monday morning commute and school travel.
Here is a snapshot from the GFS Model. I highlighted the track showing the forecast path. Below is the WRF/NAM slider for comparison. The GFS shows the Low passing through Salisbury while the WRF has it through Easton and Dover. If there is any shift north, then the band of moderate snow that will pulse around the Low, could come closer.
—> slider Clipper Close Up: WRF/NAM Model
when you click to 1 and 4 AM time stamps, compare to the 1 AM map above for the location of the Low.