Rain Returns With Warmer Air But Weekend Back To Snow And Ice
Wednesday Jan 11 – I think we can all agree that the arctic air has departed. Even the surprise of lingering ice this morning on the north end while temps were warming is gone. Now we get set for another wave of moisture as the main storm tracks well north through the Great Lakes. This will push in rain this afternoon/evening and a surge into the 60s on Thursday. But the arctic front will drop back south and settle just south of Maryland over the weekend. This will bring another wave of energy as we end up on the cold side… and thus Saturday and Sunday have the chance of snow and ice. More below.
Here are three sliders. First, a look at the short range rain moving in. Most all be between metro Washington to Baltimore and north. Southern Maryland and Delmarva skip this. Below is the wider view of the main storm and warm air as the wintry weather is locked up in the Great Lakes. Then, the set up for the weekend snow and ice. At this point it doesn’t look heavy, but a nuisance to travel and a waste for teachers and kids during the holiday.
Simulated Radar Through This Evening —> slider HRRR Model
Storm Track—> slider GFS Model
Temps will surge ahead of the storm, but the arctic front will drag behind it and pass through late Friday
Weekend Winter Weather —> slider GFS Model
The blocking High to our north will keep the front stalled as the next system rides along the front. Enough blocking to help snow and ice develop. The timing is spread out on multiple models, but the weekend looks like both days will keep the threat of snow and freezing rain around.
Support on Canadian Model Too
*The European is even more aggressive for the weekend.
While we have this roller coaster, notice the drop to colder temps this weekend. The modeling can’t handle the arctic front well… But keeps trending colder. Next week may look mild, but winter is far from done. I like this fluctuation because it shows a lot of energy in the atmosphere. We will get back into the action in another week or so.
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