6:10 AM Tuesday January 10 – The band of snow moving through the mountains is a little stronger and faster than models have suggested. This may be just enough to coat the ground, and considering the morning commute is the main reason for the extra attention. My prior radar simulation is posted again below, but please consider the error of at lest 1 hour faster… plus the band holding together a little longer. The timing I suggested did account for the faster speed. Just wanted to remind you so you are not surprised.
A transition is about to occur in the atmosphere as the arctic air will move out and a warm up will begin today. With that is a band of snow and sleet that is moving through this morning. The problem is that it has to cross the mountains and bump into very dry air overhead. It is hard to consider that this solid band of precipitation will fall apart, but that is what typically happens. The hardest question to answer is where and when. So timing this out is tough. Here is the latest radar simulation from the High Resolution model showing the progress that reaches central Maryland at the tail end of the morning commute. At this point busses and most commuters shoal be OK, but west of Frederick this may clip you.
- Temps will be cold enough so that what falls will stick.
- There is also a lot of salt on the roads to help with the onset.
- This will last about an hour when it passes by.
- Sleet may mix in where green shading shows up on the radar simulation
- Notice the band falling apart! The best chance to get snow and sleet will be west of I-81 until 8 AM. This includes 6:30 AM to 8 AM arrival in Hagerstown and Winchester.
- Along I-70 east of Frederick after 8 AM.
- Around Baltimore, at this point… looks like it will arrive after 9 AM.
- Temperatures will rise above freezing this afternoon.