Monday January 9 – This morning is frigid. No two ways about it. Temps in the lower teens for most and wind chills below zero. Not much of a warm up, even in southern Maryland to the beaches thanks to deep snowpack. Many schools on Maryland’s lower Eastern Shore are closed today due to Saturday storm. Notice the uniform temps staying in the mid 20s. There will be quite a warm up this week with 60°F by Thursday and Friday! But that does not mean winter is over, by far! However the active jet stream will be producing a few ‘events’ that we need to track. The first one on Tuesday I think will skirt the north side of our region, the second one this weekend could be more of an ice maker. I do want to point out what helped me forecast the last snow storm… there is a trend for storms to verify farther north. So where we see ice setting up next weekend could shift. Let’s take a look:
Afternoon Highs Today
Tuesday Snow/Ice North: —> slider GFS Model
As the warmer air arrives with the next storm, there will be a band of snow and ice arriving. The timing appears to be mid day or afternoon Tuesday. That is not the worst thing as daytime heating wil limit the impact on roads… So timing is key… earlier in the day would be a problem. But the track is also important, and for now it looks like the first flakes or ice pellets will be passing northwest of Baltimore. Should there be anything in central Maryland, it would be very light. If you want a school delay or concerned about travel, the best bet would be freezing drizzle that models have trouble picking up on. I will track this in more detail in this afternoon’s report.