Snow Reports From Jan 7: Grade My Forecast

Snow Reports From Jan 7: Grade My Forecast

Our first snow storm of the season did not disappoint. I know some of you in central Maryland were doubting it with the late start, but we had a good burst of snow mid day to help confirm my forecast. If you were reading my posts and outlooks over the past few days (even prior to our first event Thursday night), I was suggesting that main storm was going to end up farther north than the computer forecasts were suggesting. This was due to

  1. Timing
  2. Speed of the Pacific jet stream
  3. Continued model error with storms verifying farther north. This keeps that trend going.

Skynet is not yet ready! I will take this forecast as human 1, computer zero!  The modeling does help, but it was far from perfect.  While I am a hard critic of my forecasting, all of my clients ended up in the zone they expected. There was a delayed start and even a snow hole over from DB to Baltimore, including Howard and Anne Arundel Counties. But they got their snow burst at lunchtime. But, being able to give you an idea a few days ahead to time, I am grading this an A. Please let me know what you think.

Below are multiple snow spotter maps and lists. There may be spots missing or not exactly what you got in the same town. There is a variation depending on your location and perhaps officially snow stick used :-).  Even the observing reports can be confusing as I demonstrate below.

 

Compare to my snowfall map to the spotters. How did I do?

Please share your report and grade my forecast on the social media post you saw this article link…

Note: The final call for snowfall I did shrink due to dry air on the north end… but snow still coated the ground northward into York PA.

 

Official Reports From National Weather Service

 

My Final Call took the north end down a little.. but the snow still reached into PA. Much farther north than computer models had suggested.

Baltimore Didn’t Get It’s First Inch Yet?

Officially we do not have a winner in our snowfall contest yet. The report yesterday from BWI was confusing?!?

  • The daily snow was measured at 0.4″
  • The total for the month was 0.6″
  • But the SNOW DEPTH was 1 Inch? That is not a sum of the numbers above if 0.6″was the January total?

*The overnight report was increased to 0.5″ for this event. Still lower than all surrounding areas.

Generally a 1 to 2 inch snow blanket fell on central Maryland….

A list of snowfall in Maryland from NWS Spotters at the bottom of this post…

The top winners were as expected in southern Maryland and on Delmarva.

St. Mary’s County– Leonardtown = 9.7″

Calvert County – Dowell = 7.5″

Annapolis = 1.5″ to 3.0″

Eastern Shore

Centerville = 7.0″

Easton = 6.0″

Salisbury – 9.0″ was a record for the date

Faith in the Beach Flakes

Delaware

Lewes = 10.0″

Seaford = 9.0″

Bethany Beach = 13.5″

Selbyville – 13.0″

Dover 5.4″, but nearby Woodside got 7.0″

 

Faith in the Flakes Online- Flannel PJs Printed Inside Out

Store Now Open

  • We’ve added Flannel PJ Pants that will be printed inside out. They have to be, to make it snow ?
  • Free Personal Delivery for orders of 20 items or more to schools and businesses.
  • Click this image for the online store.
  • Look for more items to be added soon.
  • Also see the info for the STEM Assembly Spirit Wear program:  Put your school name on the shirts and raise money for you PTO/PTA in the process.

FITF SNOW STICKS

thatcher_snowsticksAvailable in 2 Ft, 30 Inches, and 3 Ft Sizes. Also with Orange/Black or Purple/Black. Click on the image to see the options offered by my friend Thatcher at Signs By Tomorrow in Timonium.

Go to http://www.signsbytomorrow.com/timonium/ to order yours today! Click the ‘Request a Quote’ button at the top of the page. In comment box include color, size and payment information. Please indicate whether you’d like to have us UPS ship them to you or if you would like to pick up in our store. Snow Sticks will ship or will be ready for pick up in our store 48 hrs after order is placed, Mon-Fri.

Reports from NWS Sterling

MD Zone (Western Shore):

Eastern VA reports at the bottom of this post

********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL********************

LOCATION          STORM TOTAL     TIME/DATE   COMMENTS                   
                     SNOWFALL           OF 
                     /INCHES/   MEASUREMENT


...DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA...
   1 WSW NATIONAL ZOO     1.2   928 PM  1/07  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   THE WHITE HOUSE        0.9   230 PM  1/07  COCORAHS                

MARYLAND

...ANNE ARUNDEL COUNTY...
   SSE SUNRISE BEACH      2.2   300 PM  1/07  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   4 W ANNAPOLIS          1.4   250 PM  1/07  PRIVATE COMPANY         
   1 NW HERALD HARBOR     1.2   216 PM  1/07  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   1 N EDGEWATER          1.0  1101 AM  1/07  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   NE GINGERVILLE MANOR   1.0  1101 AM  1/07  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   BWI AIRPORT            0.5   700 PM  1/07  AIRPORT                 

...BALTIMORE COUNTY...
   3 W NORRISVILLE        2.8   617 PM  1/07  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   WNW GREENBRIER         1.5   148 PM  1/07  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   1 WSW EUDOWOOD         1.5   148 PM  1/07  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   2 NW LONG GREEN        1.4   115 PM  1/07  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   W RIDGEWAY             1.3   200 PM  1/07  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   SE MOUNT WASHINGTON    1.0   230 PM  1/07  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   HUNT VALLEY            1.0   145 PM  1/07  BROADCAST MEDIA         
   1 NE KINGSVILLE        1.0   130 PM  1/07  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   REISTERSTOWN           1.0   257 PM  1/07  COUNTY EMRG MGMT        
   1 ESE OELLA            0.9   230 PM  1/07  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   1 SSE CATONSVILLE      0.8   403 PM  1/07  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   NNW FOXHALL FARM       0.8   330 PM  1/07  TRAINED SPOTTER         

...BALTIMORE CITY...
   PIMLICO                1.0   404 PM  1/07  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   1 NE PIMLICO           0.7   200 PM  1/07  COCORAHS                

...CALVERT COUNTY...
   2 NE DOWELL            7.5   403 PM  1/07  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   ENE CHESAPEAKE WOODS   7.5   339 PM  1/07  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   1 ENE WOODRIDGE        6.5   400 PM  1/07  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   NNW LYONS CREEK HUND   2.8   300 PM  1/07  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   2 WSW TRACYS LANDING   2.8   358 PM  1/07  TRAINED SPOTTER         

...CHARLES COUNTY...
   W COOKSEY KNOLLS       3.6   300 PM  1/07  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   1 SW DENTSVILLE        3.6   325 PM  1/07  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   1 NW WICOMICO          3.5   524 PM  1/07  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   2 W AQUASCO            3.1   819 PM  1/07  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   HUGHESVILLE            2.8   617 PM  1/07  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   1 N SANDY LEVEL ESTA   2.2   300 PM  1/07  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   1 SSE ST. CHARLES      2.0   546 PM  1/07  COCORAHS                
   1 SSE ST. CHARLES      2.0   618 PM  1/07  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   SSW ASHFORD            1.6   225 PM  1/07  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   2 W WALDORF            1.6   217 PM  1/07  TRAINED SPOTTER         

...HARFORD COUNTY...
   WHITEFORD              1.0   352 PM  1/07  TRAINED SPOTTER         

...HOWARD COUNTY...
   1 ESE SAVAGE           2.0   337 PM  1/07  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   SW KINGS MEADE         1.5   400 PM  1/07  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   2 N COLUMBIA           1.4  1245 PM  1/07  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   2 W SAVAGE             1.3   325 PM  1/07  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   1 SSE SIMPSONVILLE     1.3  1245 PM  1/07  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   COLUMBIA               1.2   100 PM  1/07  NWS EMPLOYEE            
   1 SW OELLA             1.2   404 PM  1/07  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   SSE HILLTOP            1.2   300 PM  1/07  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   ELKRIDGE               1.1   200 PM  1/07  NWS EMPLOYEE            
   2 NE COLUMBIA          1.0   326 PM  1/07  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   S GLENMONT             1.0   300 PM  1/07  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   2 SE GAITHER           0.7  1200 PM  1/07  COCORAHS                

...MONTGOMERY COUNTY...
   1 ESE TAKOMA PARK      2.3   217 PM  1/07  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   1 WSW CHEVY CHASE VI   1.7   358 PM  1/07  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   WNW MAPLEWOOD          1.7   300 PM  1/07  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   1 W WHITE OAK          1.5   323 PM  1/07  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   1 ESE NORBECK          1.5  1230 PM  1/07  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   1 E ROSSMOOR           1.5   130 PM  1/07  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   SILVER SPRING          1.2   130 PM  1/07  NWS HQ              
   1 NNE WASHINGTON GRO   0.8   100 PM  1/07  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   W EMORY GROVE          0.8   100 PM  1/07  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   3 SSW DAMASCUS         0.5   100 PM  1/07  CO-OP OBSERVER          
   1 ENE MONTGOMERY VIL   0.5   140 PM  1/07  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   1 WSW HICKORY GROVE    0.5   140 PM  1/07  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   1 N CLARKSBURG         0.3   149 PM  1/07  OTHER FEDERAL           

...PRINCE GEORGES COUNTY...
   1 ENE BADEN            1.5   431 PM  1/07  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   1 SW OXON HILL         1.3   334 PM  1/07  CO-OP OBSERVER          
   1 E NORTH LAUREL       1.2   310 PM  1/07  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   2 E BURTONSVILLE       1.2   230 PM  1/07  COCORAHS                
   WSW QUEENSTOWN         1.0   100 PM  1/07  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   1 E CALVERTON          1.0  1215 PM  1/07  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   ESE CALVERTON          1.0  1215 PM  1/07  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   1 N MOUNT RAINIER      1.0   100 PM  1/07  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   2 NNE COLLEGE PARK     0.7   524 PM  1/07  NWS EMPLOYEE            
   1 E UNIVERSITY PARK    0.7   316 PM  1/07  NWS OFFICE              


...ST. MARYS COUNTY...
   1 WNW LEONARDTOWN      9.7   440 PM  1/07  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   2 W CALLAWAY           7.8   407 PM  1/07  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   3 NW CALIFORNIA        8.0   430 PM  1/07  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   1 ENE RIDGE            7.2  1100 AM  1/07  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   2 W CALIFORNIA         7.1   420 PM  1/07  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   1 SSW HOLLYWOOD        7.1   405 PM  1/07  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   SAINT INIGOES          7.0  1125 AM  1/07  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   2 NE SCOTLAND          7.0  1103 AM  1/07  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   NNE COMPTON            7.0   503 PM  1/07  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   S BRETON WOODS         7.0   420 PM  1/07  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   DAMERON                6.5  1239 PM  1/07  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   VALLEY LEE             6.5   543 PM  1/07  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   3 W CALIFORNIA         6.5   405 PM  1/07  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   2 W CALLAWAY           6.3   200 PM  1/07  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   2 WSW CLEMENTS         6.0   616 PM  1/07  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   3 SSE COMPTON          6.0   822 PM  1/07  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   1 SSE MECHANICSVILLE   5.5   200 PM  1/07  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   3 ESE PARK HALL        5.5   400 PM  1/07  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   1 N SAINT ANDREWS ES   5.0   330 PM  1/07  TRAINED SPOTTER

 

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Eastern Virginia Map from NWS Wakefield. List from NWS Sterling VA

VIRGINIA

...ALBEMARLE COUNTY...
   2 NE GLENDOWER         3.0   511 PM  1/07  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   EARLYSVILLE            2.0   733 PM  1/07  CO-OP OBSERVER          
   1 S BOYD TAVERN        2.0  1215 PM  1/07  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   3 NW EARLYSVILLE       1.8  1134 AM  1/07  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   NNW WINDRIFT           1.8  1100 AM  1/07  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   2 WNW EARLYSVILLE      1.6   400 PM  1/07  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   WNW BEDFORD HILLS      1.5   200 PM  1/07  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   2 W HOLLYMEAD          1.5   218 PM  1/07  TRAINED SPOTTER         

...ARLINGTON COUNTY...
   1 NNE BAILEYS CROSSR   1.5   130 PM  1/07  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   1 S ROSSLYN            1.2   200 PM  1/07  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   SW RADNOR HEIGHTS      1.2   200 PM  1/07  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   REAGAN NATIONAL AIRP   0.4   100 PM  1/07  AIRPORT                 

...AUGUSTA COUNTY...
   FISHERSVILLE           3.5   100 PM  1/07  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   NE FISHERSVILLE        3.5   100 PM  1/07  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   1 SSW WEYERS CAVE      1.5  1040 AM  1/07  TRAINED SPOTTER         

...CITY OF ALEXANDRIA...
   NNE BREN MAR PARK      1.0   105 PM  1/07  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   1 SSW FRANCONIA        0.8   240 PM  1/07  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   1 W ALEXANDRIA         0.5   130 PM  1/07  TRAINED SPOTTER         

...CITY OF CHARLOTTESVILLE...
   SSW STADIUM ROAD RES   3.2   850 AM  1/07  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   1 SW NEWCOMB HALL      3.2   851 AM  1/07  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   1 SW CHARLOTTESVILLE   2.5   100 PM  1/07  BROADCAST MEDIA         
   1 NNE CHARLOTTESVILL   1.8  1024 AM  1/07  TRAINED SPOTTER         

...CITY OF FALLS CHURCH...
   SSE VALLEY BROOK       2.0   220 PM  1/07  TRAINED SPOTTER         

...CITY OF FREDERICKSBURG...
   2 NW FREDERICKSBURG    2.0   615 PM  1/07  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   2 SSW NORA PARK        2.0   315 PM  1/07  TRAINED SPOTTER         

...CITY OF HARRISONBURG...
   HARRISONBURG           2.5  1100 AM  1/07  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   2 W HARRISONBURG       1.5  1020 AM  1/07  BROADCAST MEDIA         

...CITY OF MANASSAS...
   MANASSAS               1.3   120 PM  1/07  NWS EMPLOYEE            

...CITY OF STAUNTON...
   STAUNTON               2.8  1248 PM  1/07  BROADCAST MEDIA         

...FAIRFAX COUNTY...
   1 NW PINE SPRING       2.0   200 PM  1/07  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   1 W LAKE BARCROFT      2.0   218 PM  1/07  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   1 SSE DUNN LORING      2.0   200 PM  1/07  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   1 SE KEENE MILL HEIG   2.0   210 PM  1/07  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   2 WSW WEST SPRINGFIE   2.0   220 PM  1/07  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   1 ESE DUNN LORING      1.8   230 PM  1/07  COCORAHS                
   FALLS CHURCH           1.8   400 PM  1/07  NWS EMPLOYEE            
   1 SE CENTREVILLE       1.5   358 PM  1/07  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   SE HOLLY PARK ESTATE   1.5  1240 PM  1/07  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   1 SE FAIRFAX           1.5   120 PM  1/07  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   1 SW CENTREVILLE FAR   1.5   325 PM  1/07  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   1 W MCLEAN             1.1   130 PM  1/07  NWS EMPLOYEE            
   3 N CHANTILLY          1.1   300 PM  1/07  NWS EMPLOYEE                
   3 SE CHANTILLY         1.0   221 PM  1/07  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   E CRYSTAL SPRINGS      1.0   245 PM  1/07  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   2 S LINCOLNIA          1.0   105 PM  1/07  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   VIENNA                 1.0   225 PM  1/07  CO-OP OBSERVER          
   CENTREVILLE            0.9   100 PM  1/07  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   1 ENE WOLF TRAP        0.9   720 PM  1/07  COCORAHS                
   W CENTREVILLE          0.9   140 PM  1/07  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   S COOKTOWN             0.8  1210 PM  1/07  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   1 NNE HERNDON          0.8  1210 PM  1/07  NWS EMPLOYEE            
   2 ENE HERNDON          0.8   325 PM  1/07  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   1 SSW DRANESVILLE      0.8   200 PM  1/07  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   1 SSW FRANCONIA        0.8   220 PM  1/07  TRAINED SPOTTER         

...FAUQUIER COUNTY...
   OPAL                   0.6   100 PM  1/07  NWS EMPLOYEE            

...KING GEORGE COUNTY...
   S JERSEY               5.5   500 PM  1/07  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   1 E WEEDONVILLE        3.4   145 PM  1/07  TRAINED SPOTTER         

...LOUDOUN COUNTY...
   NE CLOVERDALE          1.0   235 PM  1/07  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   1 SW PLEASANT VALLEY   0.8   200 PM  1/07  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   DULLES INTERNATIONAL   0.6   100 PM  1/07  AIRPORT                 
   SSE PINEY COURT        0.5   130 PM  1/07  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   ASHBURN                0.3  1215 PM  1/07  NWS EMPLOYEE            
   1 ESE LEESBURG         0.1  1210 PM  1/07  NWS OFFICE              

...NELSON COUNTY...
   W TWIN POPLARS         3.2  1233 PM  1/07  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   4 ESE NELLYSFORD       3.2  1233 PM  1/07  TRAINED SPOTTER         

...ORANGE COUNTY...
   THORNHILL              2.5   113 PM  1/07  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   1 E ORANGE             1.2   141 PM  1/07  TRAINED SPOTTER         

...PAGE COUNTY...
   1 ESE HONEYVILLE       1.2   800 AM  1/07  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   2 SE KIMBALL           0.8   200 PM  1/07  PARK SERVICE            

...PRINCE WILLIAM COUNTY...
   3 N INDEPENDENT HILL   2.4   145 PM  1/07  COCORAHS                
   1 SE FARRS CORNER      1.8   500 PM  1/07  TRAINED SPOTTER         

...ROCKINGHAM COUNTY...
   1 W DAYTON             1.0   930 AM  1/07  TRAINED SPOTTER         

...SPOTSYLVANIA COUNTY...
   1 SSE POST OAK         1.2   722 AM  1/07  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   1 S DUNAVANT           1.0   930 AM  1/07  TRAINED SPOTTER         

...STAFFORD COUNTY...
   8 ESE FREDERICKSBURG   3.4   335 PM  1/07  COCORAHS                
   1 WSW SEALSTON         3.4   300 PM  1/07  COCORAHS                
   1 ESE BROOKE           2.0   324 PM  1/07  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   N FRITTERS CORNER      2.0   300 PM  1/07  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   ENE FALMOUTH BRIDGE    1.6   230 PM  1/07  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   1 SSW SPRING VALLEY    1.6   221 PM  1/07  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   1 W RAMOTH             1.5   326 PM  1/07  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   NE THE FALLS           1.5   300 PM  1/07  TRAINED SPOTTER    

Also See:

My Winter Outlook for 2016-2017: Colder with snow spread out more

Maryland Winters

NOAA Winter Outlook for 2016 to 2017

La Nina Formed: What it could mean to our winter

Farmers Almanacs Split On Cold And Snow

Extreme Weather of 2015 balanced out on both ends

Low Snow Winters In Baltimore: Records Might Surprise You

NOAA Ranks Blizzard 2016 4th Worst Snowstorm On Record

Blizzard 2016 Record Top Snowstorm: Area Totals

Get the award winning Kid Weather App I made with my oldest son and support our love for science, weather, and technology. Our 3 year anniversary of the release and our contribution to STEM education is this November. It has been downloaded in 60 countries, and works in both temperature scales. With your support we can expand on the fun introduction to science and real weather.

January 8th, 2017|Tags: , , |