Snow Arrives This Evening: Timeline And Tracking Next Storm Saturday

Snow Arrives This Evening: Timeline And Tracking Next Storm Saturday

Thursday January 5 – Our first impact snow event of the season will being this evening. The faster arrival means that it may impact some after school activities, but also will depart sooner. It also means more stickage overnight, and may suggest a faster time and shift north with the next system to follow. More on that below.  By the time you wake up Friday morning the snow will be done, however there could be some impact on the traveling and perhaps school delays. I say perhaps because that all depends on how your local road crews handle this event. West of the mountains will have snow falling before sunset. There may be flakes reaching Germantown, Mount Airy, Westminster, and York PA by 6 PM.  It may appear to be stuck in the mountains for a few hours, then progress through metro Baltimore and into Philadelphia by 9 PM. Most of Maryland should have snow, including St. Mary’s and Ocean City by midnight.

Here is the radar simulation and more notes to follow. I expect The National Weather Service will issue Winter Weather Advisories as we will average between 1 and 2 inches of snow. I am not making a map since it will be widespread with local variations and I agree with the NWS maps shown below. But will point out the temperatures that will make this more fluffy Northwest of Baltimore. Near central Maryland and east, temps may start above freezing and end below, so ice may develop at the road surface adding to the challenge for road crews.

Radar Simulation —> HRRR Model

 

Snow Departs Before Sunrise

Storm Departing By Daybreak:

Temperatures:

This Evening

Friday Morning

 

Snowfall Potential: Widespread 1 to 2 Inches

NWS Zone Maps – (see the more on the Saturday Storm Below)

 

 

 

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Saturday Storm

As I mentioned earlier, the timing of the energy will determine the development of the next storm. Staying on this earlier trend, the jet stream will not be was far south, and there is more energy aloft to help pull the storm closer… but not close enough for all. This looks like a Delmarva impact storm Saturday morning. I have added a yellow line to where I see the edge of the light snow to fall near Baltimore. Below are the snow totals showing Salisbury with 3″, but much more from Virginia Beach to eastern North Carolina.

 

 

 

Northern edge of snow Saturday morning may reach I-95, or close… but the accumulation would be an impact for southern Maryland into Richmond and Virginia Beach VA and eastern North Carolina.

 

Temperature Outlook

After a cold weekend, the jet stream bounces back north and next week will be warmer. Winter will follow behind it. There is plenty of time left and this system will put us ahead of last winter.

 

 

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Also See:

My Winter Outlook for 2016-2017: Colder with snow spread out more

Maryland Winters

NOAA Winter Outlook for 2016 to 2017

La Nina Formed: What it could mean to our winter

Farmers Almanacs Split On Cold And Snow

Extreme Weather of 2015 balanced out on both ends

Low Snow Winters In Baltimore: Records Might Surprise You

NOAA Ranks Blizzard 2016 4th Worst Snowstorm On Record

Blizzard 2016 Record Top Snowstorm: Area Totals