Next Storm Shifting North

Next Storm Shifting North

Thursday Jan 5 10 PM – This is a quick update on the second system on the way Friday night into Saturday morning. Only brief notes because there were many questions, but it is snowing now and I need to wake up early for my clients… But will there be more work this weekend? Over the past two days I have pointed out that I think the models will bring that second stronger storm farther north. This was based on an earlier arrival timing the energy before the jet stream could slip too far south. Also, a bias in the models that have had the storms verify farther north than projected.

UPDATE: Friday Morning

Winter Storm Warning for southern Maryland. See the latest projected totals and what to watch for should it shift farther north.

This storm has Winter Storm Watches as far south as Atlanta and into Delmarva. Ocean City, MD to eastern North Carolina could see 6 to 12 inches of snow. But a sharp cut off leaves central Maryland dry… Or does it?

Here are two maps form the GFS and Canadian models I showed this morning with the bias accounted for.. So I drew in where I expected the back edge of the snow to be….

 

Here’s the set up tonight:

 

Upper Level Winds

These will carry this system as a southern storm. The expectation on many models has been for the momentum to swing it off the coast before a chance to turn north…

 

The latest NAM Model   —> slider

This did shift the storm far enough north to show snow for most of Delmarva and back up near I-95

I do not like to bank on one model shift… but the trend has been closer to keep places around the Chesapeake Bay in check.

The latest GFS Model did show that slight shift closer… ever so slight.

 

Will we get snow? This all hinges on how the current system behaves. Not only howe much snow it drops, and how soon it departs… but what it does to our north. This will help dictate the jet stream. Perhaps limit the drop south and allow the next system to stay closer rather than be shoved farther away.

 

I will update this in the morning….  But for now, Salisbury, Ocean City, and Dover all could have decent snow Saturday morning. Virginia Beach may end up with nearly a foot of snow! That’s a rarity!

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Also See:

My Winter Outlook for 2016-2017: Colder with snow spread out more

Maryland Winters

NOAA Winter Outlook for 2016 to 2017

La Nina Formed: What it could mean to our winter

Farmers Almanacs Split On Cold And Snow

Extreme Weather of 2015 balanced out on both ends

Low Snow Winters In Baltimore: Records Might Surprise You

NOAA Ranks Blizzard 2016 4th Worst Snowstorm On Record

Blizzard 2016 Record Top Snowstorm: Area Totals

 

 

January 5th, 2017|Tags: , , , |