November 30 – As the calendar turns to December, it will be the start of meteorological winter. The shorter daylight and colder air gets many thinking and wishing for snow. That may be hard to imagine with temps in the 60s today, but we are about to have a pattern change. This will come in stages, and gradually the colder air will dominate. This week we will note the cool down through the weekend. As slightly warmer air tries to arrive, some of the models are trying to bringing moisture with a threat of some snow or a mix involved nearby. The end of next week may be more prolific as a stronger storm will bring needed heavy rain followed by a deeper and stronger push of cold air. There appears to be a good chance cold air catches up in time to end it as snow.
Note: If you have Faith in the Flakes, we are going to our first print for the new flannel FITF PJs tomorrow. Get your order in now and you may have them in time next week.
I want to be clear of two things before showing you two models indicating potential snow next week:
- The storm projection for the end of next week is likely to NOT be exactly as shown below. There will be some adjustment of track, timing, and intensity of the next storm… So please use this as a gauge, not a guarantee.
- It is early in the season, so even if we can get some snow to form, we would need an organized storm to get stickage on the warmer ground. The best chance for any of that here will be in the mountains west and north of Baltimore.
Canadian GEM Model
This is my go to in the winter… But the accuracy is much better in north branch jet stream dominated patterns. This model is most aggressive with snow or a mix Tuesday… and then again next Thursday.