November 10 2016 – A much different weather pattern could be shaping up as a result of the waters in the Pacific Ocean. Today NOAA officially declared that a La Nina has formed, which is the opposite of the warmer water in the record El Nino recorded last year. This is a colder patter, and shifts the jet stream farther to the north as seen in the graphic above. Compare that to the classic El Nino pattern at the bottom of this post.
What does that mean for us? We can not promise what this will bring, especially since this is weak to moderate and other global patterns contribute to what we can see. But below you will find what we may expect… but the intensity will determine if this is good for snow lovers.
Note: I am working on a new FITF store along with my winter outlook. Hopefully they will be ready any day… I will be contacting a few teachers to start setting up FITF spirit wear/assemblies. I will post the information to that soon as well.
According to today’s report from NOAA:
“La Nina has arrived and is favored to stick around through winter. The climate phenomena will likely contribute to drier and warmer weather in the southern U.S. and wetter, cooler conditions in the Pacific Northwest and across to the northern tier of the nation this winter.”
The strength and duration of the La Nina is important because that would play a role in the location and identity of the jet stream. The National Weather Service records for Baltimore at BWI may look colder and more wet, but that does not always translate to a lot of snow. In fact a weak La Nina often leads to below average snowfall. A moderate La Nino would bring a typical winter. Again- there are other facts. This post is just isolating this one element.
This chart shows a weak La Nina would lead to slightly above average temperatures, but there were more colder seasons (5 of 8). This means that warmer ones are quite warm, but most are near average or slightly colder.