Thursday November 3 – Baltimore’ BWI hit 78°F today, just two degrees shy of a record but 17 degrees above average. This warm start to the month may seem like an extension of October and remove any hint of a real autumn. Often times however weather patterns will swing from one extreme to another. So there is hope for cool weather lovers that the second half of this month might show a signal of winter.
I plan on publishing my winter outlook next week and opening up the FITF (Faith in the Flakes) store with new items :-). So, I wanted to let you know I have not lost sight of the change in season, and here is a little nugget of what to look out for.
- An average November would bring 0.4″ snow
- The most snow was 9.7″ in 1989
- The largest snow storm was 8.4″ on Nov 30 1967
Daylight and Temps Drop
We are losing an average of 2 minutes of daylight each day. So the difference in sunlight time drops nearly an hour (52 minutes):
- Daylight time on Nov 1 – 10:29:47
- Daylight time on Nov 30 – 9:37:12
As a result, a typical November in Baltimore has an 11 degree drop in temperature:
- Average High Temp Nov 1 = 62°F
- Average High Temp Nov 30 = 51ºF
The changes are rarely gradual, but rather cumulative peaks and drops, with the drops becoming more prominent. One signal is the jet stream. So with any hint of cold air, we look out 10 days to see the pattern changing, but the models are not in full agreement.
The European Model is the most reliable, and shows a sign of cold air buckling the jet stream across the Northeast by mid month.